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Elections 2014

Joko Widodo

Page 1

Page 2




Prabowo Subianto

Page 1

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Jusuf Kalla


Hatta Rajasa


























 World View




In Southeast Asia, Indonesia Is an Unlikely Role Model for Democracy


JAKARTA, Indonesia — For a while, it looked as if Indonesia’s bad old days had returned.

The Constitutional Court was hearing an appeal by the losing presidential candidate, a former army general and son-in-law of Indonesia’s former dictator, who charged that the election last July had been rigged and should be overturned.
Outside, his supporters clashed with the riot police and tried to storm the court building. The police fired water cannons and tear gas.
But when the justices issued their ruling denying the appeal last month, something strange happened:
The losing candidate grudgingly accepted defeat.

The most competitive presidential election in Indonesian history had come to a dramatic and peaceful end.
Next month, Joko Widodo, the governor of Jakarta, will be sworn in at the Parliament building, completing a stunning rise from a child of the slums and carpenter to leader of the world’s fourth-most-populous nation.

Sixteen years after Suharto, the authoritarian president whose corrupt and brutal military-backed government ruled the country for 32 years, was forced to resign amid violent pro-democracy protests, Indonesia has become a role model for peaceful, democratic transfers of power in Southeast Asia, a region where they are becoming increasingly rare.

In Thailand, the military overthrew a democratically elected government in May for the second time in eight years. Malaysia and Cambodia have been mired in political turmoil since parliamentary elections last year, which the opposition in each country claims were rigged. Neither Malaysia, Cambodia nor Singapore has ever had a democratic handover to the political opposition.
The Philippines has had democratic elections, but they have tended to be tainted by fraud and violence, and the last two presidents jailed their predecessors.
And those are the democracies. Vietnam has enforced one-party Communist rule since unification, and Myanmar is taking its first, tentative steps toward openness after decades of military rule.

Indonesia, however, in addition to the presidential election, held successful general elections in April in which nearly 140 million people cast ballots, a turnout of 75 percent. All of the competing parties accepted the results.
“There is no doubt that Indonesia is now Southeast Asia’s most democratic nation, and this is something no one would have predicted in 1998,” said Marcus Mietzner, an Indonesia specialist at Australian National University.

Indonesia’s record on other fronts still leaves room for improvement. Corruption remains endemic in the nation of 250 million, religious minorities face discrimination and violence and, according to Human Rights Watch, members of the state security forces still enjoy “widespread impunity” for serious human rights abuses. But most of those areas, too, reflect enormous progress since the dictatorship era.
A central reason for Indonesia’s success is that, unlike in Thailand, post-Suharto civilian leaders in Indonesia sidelined the armed forces from politics. Lawmakers passed constitutional amendments that stripped the military of its reserved bloc of seats in the House of Representatives and ushered in direct elections, from president all the way down to mayor.
Serving military officers were barred from government posts and political party activities, and ultimately, Indonesia’s armed forces were forced to sell off their commercial business interests.

Thailand’s military, on the other hand, has repeatedly asserted its power during political crises throughout the country’s modern history — there have been a dozen successful coups since the 1930s — and it draws its legitimacy from portraying itself as the sole guardian of the monarchy.

Another crucial democratic advance for Indonesia, experts say, was its bold move to regional autonomy across the far-flung archipelago a year after Suharto’s resignation in May 1998. That decentralization of power broke Jakarta’s political monopoly and prevented the emergence of a new, dominant national political force.
It also gave smaller political groups a way to survive even if they failed to win a national election. “Forces that lose out in the center can still hold power in provinces and districts, making them accept the outcome of political contests,” Mr. Mietzner said.
To be sure, the move toward regional autonomy was also chaotic, blighted by the convictions of dozens of regional leaders for corruption.

Mr. Joko, however, is a notable example of its success. Born in a riverside slum in the Central Java city of Surakarta, the 53-year-old craftsman was twice elected mayor and used his election as governor of Jakarta in 2012 to catapult himself onto the national political stage.
He will be the first president in Indonesian history not to have come from its Suharto-era political elite or to be a former army general, and the first to assume the presidency having experience running a government.

He will be sworn in on Oct. 20 in a ceremony to be attended by the departing president, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, who was constitutionally barred from seeking a third term. Such a tableau has never been seen in Malaysia, Cambodia or Singapore.

Simon Tay, chairman of the Singapore Institute of International Affairs, said the notion of handing over power to a political opposition had become an alien concept in those countries because their respective leaders and governing parties had been in power so long.
“It’s the whole establishment, and they are not used to anything else,” Mr. Tay said. “The nature of political change would be very sweeping, and there is a fear that their countries as they know them would not survive.”
Indonesia has proved that this does not have to be the case.

The first years of democratization were tumultuous, characterized by bloody nationwide street protests, ethnic and sectarian unrest that killed thousands, terrorist attacks by homegrown Islamist militants and reluctance by the country’s feared armed forces to bend to civilian rule. The country’s first democratically elected leader in four decades, Abdurrahim Wahid, was impeached in 2001 after less than two years in office on allegations of corruption and incompetence, after tense political battles with his rivals in Parliament.

Yet Indonesia persevered, and in 2004, voters chose Mr. Yudhoyono in the first direct presidential election in the country’s history. Previously, presidents had been chosen by a legislative body tightly controlled by Suharto.
Mr. Yudhoyono’s opponent, Megawati Sukarnoputri, the incumbent president and eldest daughter of Indonesia’s founder, Sukarno, accepted defeat and stepped down, although she refused to attend his inauguration.

Indonesia’s latest election has not been wrinkle-free. The loser, Prabowo Subianto, conceded defeat, but he continues to claim that the election was marred by massive fraud. After the Constitutional Court ruled against him, Mr. Prabowo sued the government in the State Administrative Court, which rejected his suit last week. And the coalition of political parties that backed his campaign, which will have a majority when Parliament convenes in October, has threatened to form a special committee to investigate the election.

While such a panel would have no legal authority to overturn the result, it could seek to dent Mr. Joko’s legitimacy before the House of Representatives.
Political analysts, however, say this is unlikely because some of the parties in the coalition are expected to abandon Mr. Prabowo in the coming weeks and join Mr. Joko, giving him a majority and improving his ability to pass legislation.
“It seems that Prabowo does not want to accept defeat, but his so-called ‘permanent opposition coalition’ will change dramatically in the coming days,” said Ikrar Nusa Bhakti, a political science scholar at the Indonesian Institute of Sciences in Jakarta.

“Even though Indonesia is the most populous Muslim country in the world and has more than 300 different ethnic groups, the democratization process is on track,” he said. “The military has accepted civilian supremacy, and that is the key thing.”





Who’s Who in Indonesia’s Presidential Race
Competing to Lead
The presidential and vice presidential candidates competing in Indonesia’s July 9 race.

Jun 5, 2014


Prabowo Subianto
Presidential candidate for the Great Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra)
Born in Jakarta on Oct. 17, 1951 (62 years old)
Education: Indonesia’s Army Academy in Magelang, Central Java.

Prabowo Subianto is a former career soldier and ex-lieutenant general in Indonesia’s Special Forces. He served in that post during the rule of former autocrat Suharto, to whose daughter he was once married. In 1998 he was discharged from military service for his alleged involvement in the kidnapping of democracy activists who protested against Mr. Suharto and eventually drove him from power. Mr. Subianto has denied any involvement.

In 2008 he co-founded the Great Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra) and ran as the vice presidential candidate in the 2009 election on a ticket with then-president Megawati Sukarnoputri. Her party, the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle, or PDI-P, is backing Mr. Subianto’s competitor, Joko Widodo. Mr. Subianto is also the head of the Indonesian Farmers Association and is connected to the country’s lucrative mining and palm oil industries through his brother, Hashim Djojohadikusumo, one of Indonesia’s richest men. He has gained a reputation for being firm and decisive and is running on a populist platform that aims for greater economic nationalization.

Hatta Rajasa
Vice Presidential candidate for the National Mandate Party (PAN)
Born in Palembang, South Sumatra, on Dec. 18, 1953 (61 years old)
Education: Bandung Institute of Technology, School of Mining and Petroleum Engineering

Hatta Rajasa served most recently as Indonesia’s Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs, where he had a hand in crafting the country’s current economic policy. He resigned last month to run as Mr. Subianto’s running mate. He is also chairman of the National Mandate Party, or PAN.

The former businessman was appointed in 2001 by then-president Megawati Sukarnoputri to serve as Minister of Research and Technology. From 2004-2007, he was the Minister of Transportation. A close confidant of current President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, Mr. Rajasa worked as State secretary for two years before taking on the post of coordinating economic minister in 2009. His daughter is married to Mr. Yudhoyono’s youngest son.

Joko Widodo
Presidential candidate for the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P)
Born in Surakarta (also known as Solo) on June 21, 1961 (53 years old)
Education: Gadjah Mada University, School of Forestry

Joko Widodo gained attention while serving as mayor of the mid-sized city of Solo from 2005 to 2012. During his administration, he added parks and improved public spaces in the city, he introduced a rail-bus system and created a special market for street vendors. Before becoming mayor, Mr. Widodo ran a furniture export business. In 2012, he was nominated for the World Mayor Prize by the City Mayors Foundation, an international think tank.

Better known by his nickname, Jokowi, Mr. Widodo won over Jakarta voters while campaigning for governor by hitting the streets and visiting with residents – a style most had never seen from a politician. In September 2012, he won election in Jakarta, promising to improve traffic, flooding and other perennial problems plaguing the metropolis. He has since implemented a universal health care program and signed off on two new public transportation systems, winning him a reputation as a can-do leader with a heart for the average Indonesian.

Jusuf Kalla
Vice Presidential candidate, independent
Born in Watampone, South Sulawesi, on May 15, 1942 (72 years old)
Education: Hasanuddin University, School of Economics

Jusuf Kalla served as Indonesia’s vice president during President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyo’s first term, from 2004 to 2009. In 2009, he ran against his former boss for the presidency, losing by a large margin. The veteran politician who once served as chairman of Golkar, Indonesia’s oldest and one of its largest political parties, also maintains business interests in eastern Indonesia, where he grew up and has earned the support of many voters.

Mr. Kalla served briefly as the minister of trade and industry, from October 1999 to April 2000, during the short-lived and chaotic administration of president Abdurrahman Wahid. During Megawati Sukarnoputri’s presidency, he served as coordinating minister for People’s Welfare. As Yudhoyono’s No. 2, he won support for several important economic reforms, include two increases in the price of subsidized fuel, a move that usually draws strong resistance from parliament. He also helped negotiate an end to conflicts in Aceh and Ambon, cementing his reputation as a man of action. Since 2009, he has focused mainly on his work as chairman of the Indonesian Red Cross.






Prabowo Secures Golkar for Indonesia Coalition Before July Poll

By Berni Moestafa and Novrida Manurung
May 19, 2014 10:00 AM PT

Indonesian presidential frontrunner Joko Widodo tapped former vice president Jusuf Kalla as his running mate for July elections, as his main opponent formed a coalition with the country’s second-biggest party.
Widodo, 52, has been finalizing his coalition for the July 9 ballot to lead Southeast Asia’s largest economy, getting the support of three other parties. His main competitor, ex-general Prabowo Subianto, 62, from the Gerindra Party, yesterday added Golkar to his alliance, confounding expectations Golkar would tie up with Widodo’s Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle, or PDI-P.
In naming Kalla, a former Golkar chairman, as his vice presidential candidate, Widodo gains an experienced hand who can help him steer his economic changes through parliament if he wins the election. Still, the Gerindra-Golkar union could complicate that task.

A Widodo government “will face a strong opposition at the parliament,” said Yose Rizal, founder of, which tracks political discourse on the Internet. “Gerindra doesn’t get Golkar entirely because JK, who’s one of Golkar’s senior figures and with his own supporter base, is siding with Jokowi,” he said, referring to Kalla by his initials and Widodo by his nickname.
The Widodo-Kalla pairing is expected to get the support of 44 percent of voters, based on a survey by Indikator Politik Indonesia conducted before the announcement. The rupiah is the best performer this year among 11 major Asian currencies tracked by Bloomberg, amid expectations Widodo will accelerate infrastructure construction and curb fuel subsidies.
‘Right Combination’
“The two of us will bring a movement of change to this country we love,” Widodo said in Jakarta yesterday as he announced Kalla as his vice presidential candidate. He said the decision was made after consulting the alliance partners of PDI-P, as well as PDI-P chairwoman Megawati Soekarnoputri.
“Jokowi-JK is the right combination,” Djayadi Hanan, a political analyst from the University of Paramadina in Jakarta, said by phone. “JK can complement Jokowi’s weaknesses in terms of economic and international policies, and government experience.”

Kalla, 72, a businessman and chairman of the Indonesian Red Cross Society, was vice president during the first term of President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono. Together they lifted subsidized fuel prices in 2008, the first increase in three years. Widodo will aim to gradually reduce fuel subsidies, which act as a drag on the state budget, over four years, he said in an interview on May 3.
Golkar Move

The rupiah was little changed at 11,418 against the dollar yesterday in Jakarta, according to prices from local banks, having earlier touched 11,342, the strongest level since April 10. The Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) fell 0.3 percent, its first drop in six days.
“We’ve seen in the first term of SBY, when there was JK, policies were implemented faster,” said Soni Wibowo, a director at PT Bahana TCW Investment Management, which manages about $1.98 billion in assets in Jakarta, referring to Yudhoyono by his initials. “Subsidies need to be removed, infrastructure developments need to be continued and populist policies need to be balanced with fiscal capability.”

PDI-P, which has been in opposition for 10 years, won the most seats in the April parliamentary vote, getting 109 spots against 91 for Golkar. PDI-P’s alliance consists of the National Democratic Party, the National Awakening Party and Hanura.
Found ‘Chemistry’

Golkar did not win enough votes or seats in the parliamentary ballot to nominate chairman Aburizal Bakrie as a presidential candidate. The party has found “chemistry” with Gerindra and will join its coalition, Nurul Arifin, deputy secretary general at Golkar, said yesterday.

Prabowo’s probable running mate will be Hatta Rajasa, who resigned last week from the government as coordinating minister for the economy to focus on the presidential election. Prabowo’s coalition includes some Islamic parties as well as Golkar.

The Indikator Politik Indonesia survey, which polled 1,220 people from April 22 to 26 with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points, found 29 percent would choose a team of Prabowo and Rajasa.

Presidential candidates need at least 50 percent of the vote in the world’s third-largest democracy, with at least 20 percent of votes in each province in more than half of the country’s provinces. If they fall short they will face a second round election in September.

To contact the reporters on this story: Berni Moestafa in Jakarta at; Novrida Manurung in Jakarta at



Coup for Prabowo as Golkar Joins Coalition

By Yeremia Sukoyo on 04:24 pm May 19, 2014

Jakarta. The Golkar Party has finally decided to throw its support behind Prabowo Subianto, the presidential candidate from the Great Indonesia Movement Party, or Gerindra, surprising many who had considered it more likely that Golkar would support Joko Widodo from the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle, or PDI-P.
“Golkar’s central executive board has given its full support to Prabowo’s candidacy,” Idrus Marham, Golkar’s secretary general, said in Jakarta on Monday. “Everything was done based on the result of the national leaders’ meeting yesterday.”

Speaking at Rumah Polonia in East Jakarta, the house of former president Sukarno, Prabowo said his candidacy had received the support of the National Mandate Party, or PAN; the Prosperous Justice Party, or PKS; the United Development Party, or PPP; and Golkar.
“Indonesia’s major political parties such as PAN, PKS, PPP and Golkar have decided to give their support to us,” Prabowo said in a televised speech. “As a former soldier I feel like the past few months have been more exhausting — Indonesian politics is exhausting.”
“Today is a historic day for all of us because the leaders who will initiate the change in the nation have been officially declared,” Gerindra chairman Suhardi said.
“We ask for the blessings of all Indonesians for the candidacy of Prabowo and Hatta,” he added, referring to Hatta Rajasa, the PAN chairman who will share Prabowo’s ticket in the July 9 presidential election.

Suhardi said Prabowo and Hatta, with their respective military and business backgrounds, would make a compelling case to the Indonesian people.
“Both are nationalist figures who are brave, clean, honest, religious and have integrity as leaders,” Suhardi said.

PPP chairman Suryadharma Ali, the minister for religious affairs, said the pair could count on his party’s support.
“As a great nation Indonesia needs a leader with ideas and abilities to execute them and that can been seen in Prabowo and Hatta,” he said.

Golkar chairman Aburizal Bakrie did not attend Monday’s declaration, for reasons that were not immediately clear on Monday afternoon. Aburizal had appeared last week alongside the PDI-P’s Joko and pledged to offer cooperation to Joko’s presidential bid. He stopped short, however, of a firm coalition confirmation, in an example of the capriciousness of election politics in Indonesia. The issue was further complicated over the weekend when Industry Minister M.S. Hidayat, of Golkar, said Golkar and the Democratic Party would partner up.
“There were talks, but there was no agreement between the PDI-P and Golkar,” Golkar central executive board chairman Firman Soebagyo said, as quoted by Antara. “Today there was a decision that Golkar will run with Gerindra. Golkar chairman Aburizal Bakrie has communicated with Prabowo Subianto, it was decided last night.”

The announcement by Prabowo that he had secured the support of Golkar is a boon to his campaign but it remains to be seen whether the support of Golkar’s formidable election machine will translate into a boost in the polls. Golkar, the political party borne out of the Suharto regime, has nationwide clout and a strong network that enables it to perform well in legislative elections. Whether the support of Golkar helps Prabowo’s presidential polling remains to be seen in what is much more of a personality contest rather than the legislative ballot, which is fought more along party lines.





Jokowi-JK Resmi Deklarasi di Gedung Joang

Moksa Hutasoit - detikNews

Jokowi officially declares Jusuf Kalla his candidate Vice President

Jakarta - Duet Jokowi-JK resmi dideklarasikan. Jokowi mengumumkan cawapresnya itu di depan pimpinan parpol koalisi dan ratusan pendukungnya di Gedung Joang.

"Setelah melalui perenungan-perenungan dan setelah melalui konsultasi dan pertimbangan pertimbangan dengan seluruh ketua partai pendukung PDIP, Partai NasDem, PKB, dan Partai Hanura dan khususnya juga pertimbangan dari Ibu Megawati Soekarnoputri. Tadi malam telah kita putuskan wakil presiden atau calon wakil presiden yang akan mendampingi saya adalah Bapak Drs H Muhammad Jusuf Kalla," kata Jokowi dalam pidato politik pendeknya di Gedung Joang, Jl Menteng Raya, Jakarta Pusat, Senin (19/5/2014).

Jokowi dan JK berdiri bersebelahan dengan latar belakang bendera merah putih. Keduanya mengenakan kemeja putih lengan panjang.

Jokowi yakin bersama JK bakal membawa perubahan bagi Indonesia. "Kita mempunyai keyakinan insya Allah kami berdua akan membawa gerakan perubahan di negara yang kita cintai ini. Terimakasih," tutup Jokowi.

Keduanya kemudian mencium bendera merah putih.




Jokowi to Run With Kalla; Will Register With KPU Today
By SP/Anastasia Winanti Riesardhy & Markus Junianto Sihaloho on 10:04 am May 19, 2014

Jakarta. It was the worst-kept secret in contemporary Indonesian politics, and on Monday it was made official: presidential front-runner Joko Widodo has picked Jusuf Kalla, the former vice president, to be his running mate for the July 9 election.

“After some thinking and consultation with coalition party leaders, we have decided to choose Bapak Muhammad Jusuf Kalla to be my running mate,” Joko said in a brief declaration at the historical Gedung Juang building in Menteng, Central Jakarta, on Monday morning, where he was flanked by Kalla.

The pair had arrived from the nearby home of Megawati Soekarnoputri, the chairwoman of Joko’s Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle, or PDI-P, and were greeted by hundreds of supporters waving flags and banners.
Joko said he was confident that he and Kalla could “bring a change to our beloved nation,” before thanking the crowd.
Kalla added, “I am ready to accompany Bapak Joko Widodo for the welfare of our nation.”

After the declaration, the pair returned to Megawati’s home, from where they are scheduled to head to the office of the General Elections Commission, or KPU, also in Menteng, by bicycle to officially register for the election.
The PDI-P and its coalition partners were widely expected to pair Joko with Kalla, who was believed to have been proposed by Surya Paloh, the chairman of the National Democrat Party, or NasDem, one of the four parties endorsing Joko.

The others are the National Awakening Party, or PKB, and the People’s Conscience Party, or Hanura.
Surya and Kalla previously served together as top officials of the Golkar Party, until Surya left to establish NasDem.
Polls paint Joko as the strong favorite to win the July 9 election.
Presidential candidates have until midnight on Tuesday to register with the KPU. Joko and Kalla are expected to be the first to do so.

Prabowo Subianto of the Great Indonesia Movement Party, or Gerindra, is also expected to register later today. He previously named Hatta Rajasa of the National Mandate Party, or PAN, as his running mate.

After registering, the candidates will undergo a medical check-up at Gatot Subroto Army Hospital in Central Jakarta later this week.







Indonesia’s Presidential Vote Showdown Seen Narrowing to Two Parties: Gerindra, PDI-P
By Erwida Maulia & Novy Lumanauw on 11:58 pm May 13, 2014

Jakarta. The presidential election looks set to be a showdown between Jakarta Governor Joko Widodo and former special forces general Prabowo Subianto after tycoon Aburizal Bakrie threw his support behind Joko’s Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle, or PDI-P.

Aburizal’s decision to support Joko brings an end to his efforts to cozy up to either Prabowo’s Great Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra) or President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono’s ruling Democratic Party.

Just days after his high-profile meeting with Aburizal at his Bogor ranch, which ended in smiles and handshakes, Prabowo opted for Coordinating Minister for the Economy Hatta Rajasa, also the chairman of the National Mandate Party (PAN) and Yudhoyono’s in-law, as his running mate, while Joko is widely expected to pick former vice president and Golkar senior figure Jusuf Kalla.

The political landscape ahead of the presidential election in July has now polarized into two power blocs.

The National Democrats (NasDem) and National Awakening Party (PKB) have sided with the PDI-P and Golkar while the United Development Party (PPP), possibly Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) and People’s Conscience Party (Hanura) have joined Gerindra and PAN.

The Democratic Party, however, is still examining its options ahead of its convention to choose its candidate.

Golkar, runner-up of the April 9 legislative election with 14.75 percent of the vote after PDI-P (18.95 percent), announced on Tuesday evening its support for Joko’s bid in a symbolic meeting between him and Aburizal.

Joko praised Golkar for not demanding anything in return for its support.

“This is pure cooperation,” Joko said as he addressed a joint press conference with Aburizal at Gembrong traditional market in East Jakarta. “With Pak ARB [Aburizal], to date there has been no talks on vice presidential candidates or ministers.”






Hatta Steps Down to Join Prabowo’s Presidential Ticket
By Robertus Wardi on 07:35 pm May 13, 2014

Jakarta. Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs Hatta Rajasa on Tuesday announced his resignation from the cabinet to run alongside Great Indonesia Movement (Gerindra) Party presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto.

“According to the regulations, public officials such as ministers have to resign
from their positions if they want to join the presidential and vice presidential elections. I have received the president’s blessing,” Hatta said at a press conference in Jakarta.

He said he submitted his resignation yesterday and spoke to the president in person earlier today.

He said the official announcement of his candidacy would come on Wednesday, after a meeting of his party’s leadership.

Hatta is chairman of the National Mandate Party (PAN), which won 7.59 percent
of the vote in the April 9 legislative elections. Gerindra won 11.81 percent.





Official Result of the Indonesian Legislative Election 2014

10 May 2014





PPP decides to support Prabowo
Mon, May 12 2014 12:23 |

Jakarta (ANTARA News) - The national leadership meeting of the United Development Party (PPP) has finally decided to support the presidential aspirant from the Great Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra), Prabowo Subianto, stated PPP Chairman Suryadharma Ali.file:///M|/_EJI/__Websites/indodigest/2300elections2014prabowo.htm

"Finally, at the end of our meeting at 2 a.m., on Monday, we officially decided to support Prabowo Subianto as the presidential candidate in the July 9, 2014 presidential election," Suryadharma Ali remarked.

He noted that there were three options at the start of the meeting on Saturday: Prabowo, Joko "Jokowi" Widodo of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDIP), and Aburizal Bakrie of the Golkar party with PPP Deputy Chairman Lukman Hakim Saefuddin as Aburizals running mate.

But, the meeting, which was held on Saturday and lasted till early Monday morning, to determine the direction of its coalition finally decided to coalesce with Prabowo.

Editor: Priyambodo RH










Poor Poll Results Drive Aburizal, Prabowo Into Each Others’ Arms
By Yeremia Sukoyo, Ezra Sihite, Erwin Sihombing, & Markus Junianto Sihaloho
May 05, 2014

Golkar Party chairman and presidential candidate Aburizal Bakrie has expressed his willingness to become a vice presidential candidate for Great Indonesia Movement Party founder Prabowo Subianto in the upcoming election as speculation on the two parties’ coalition grow after recent meetings.

“I do not mind [being vice presidential candidate], and neither does Prabowo,” Aburizal told reporters after a meeting with Prabowo in Hambalang in Bogor, West Java, on Monday.

He added that during the meeting, both parties agreed on a common political stance for the elections.
“Prabowo talked about his policies and they look good. We also talked about small businesses and providing a bigger job market,” Aburizal said.
“We will hold more talks. It does not matter who will be number one or number two, our only concern is what is best for
the country. Such positions are merely instruments in our efforts to improve people’s welfare.”

Prabowo on his part also indicated that his party would be looking into a potential political partnership with Golkar.
“Soon we would like to have a political partnership. We are optimistic about doing something good for the people and for
our country. We promise to meet and talk more,” Prabowo said. “When the time is right, we will make an announcement. Our priority is to find the best people to take Indonesia forward.”

The meeting between the politicians follows an earlier meeting on April 29, where the two met to discuss the political landscape ahead of the elections, inspiring speculation of a possible coalition between their parties.

Responding to Aburizal’s statements, Golkar spokesperson Tantowi Yahya said the move would likely be discussed at the party’s central executive board (DPP) meeting set for Tuesday evening.
“There will be a DPP meeting. It will be a national leaders meeting and whether or not the branch offices will be invited, all
of that will be discussed tomorrow and of course it is likely the meeting [on Monday] with Prabowo will be discussed.”
Tantowi played down speculation about Aburizal and Prabowo’s pairing, emphasizing that everything will have to wait for
his party’s national leader’s meeting.

Political analyst Ray Rangkuti said that Gerindra and Golkar’s plans to form a coalition would give way to a new political dynamic and that the members of Golkar may reject Aburizal’s position as a vice presidential candidate.
“Because according to their [earlier] national leaders meeting, Aburizal’s mandate was to be a presidential candidate. If it was a vice presidential candidate [Golkar] was looking for, of course there are many other names Golkar can propose,” Ray said on Monday, citing names such as Akbar Tanjung and Priyo Budi Santoso.
Previously, party stalwart Akbar had spoken out against Aburizal’s nomination as Golkar’s presidential candidate.

Additionally, Ray said the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) will have to be considered, as they have also been in talks with Gerindra and have even prepared three names that could potentially be nominated as candidate for Prabowo’s vice president.

The National Mandate Party (PAN), another party that has been in talks with Gerindra, may reconsider its coalition plans, despite surveys showing Prabowo and PAN chairman and current coordinating minister for the economy Hatta Rajasa were
a relatively promising pair.
“If PAN were to support [Indonesia Democratic Party of Struggle, or PDI-P, presidential candidate] Joko Widodo, then it is likely there would be just one round of the presidential elections, and PAN could once again be part of the government,”
Ray said.

Gerindra deputy chairman Fadli Zon said over the weekend that his party had made no decision regarding PAN,
emphasizing that Gerindra was still weighing its options for partners.
“Our communications with Hatta is positive, there is chemistry, but there has been no final decision yet,” Fadli said in Jakarta on Sunday, adding that Gerindra was also in talks with Hanura chief patron Wiranto.
According to him, Gerindra will be deciding its vice presidential candidate after a coalition has officially been formed. “We’re not going there yet. We’ll get there after the coalition,” he said.

The latest survey by Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting (SRMC) showed that Joko remains the most electable candidate today, with Prabowo in second place.
However, SRMC researcher Sirojudin Abbas warned that the situation was prone to change should PDI-P take the wrong steps.
“Without a vice president, Joko would earn 51.6 percent, while Prabowo would earn 35.7 percent. But this competition could vary if we were to include their vice presidential candidates,” he said.











Golkar-Gerindra Coalition's President: Aburizal Bakrie or Prabowo Subianto?

Prabowo holds meeting with Aburizal on possible coalition
As options dwindle, Prabowo pitches Aburizal on coalition







Islamic Parties Surprise in Indonesia’s Legislative Elections
By Kennial Caroline Laia on 11:12 pm Apr 18, 2014

Jakarta. The April 9 legislative election has brought two surprising results.
First, the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), which was predicted to garner a large number of votes with
the help of the widely popular Jakarta Governor Joko Widodo as its presidential candidate, only garnered around
19 percent — far below its target of 27 percent.

The second surprise came in the form of five Islamic parties, which analysts had written off as small contenders,
performing much better than expected.
With a combined count of 31.9 percent of the vote, according to early data from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, this year’s legislative elections mark the surprise rise of the country’s religion-based parties.
Five years ago, the group managed to secure 29 percent of the votes, which was said to be the lowest level of support
ever for a country attributed as having the world’s largest Muslim population.

The Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) managed to keep its support stable, despite being hit by a graft case involving its disgraced former chairman, Luthfi Hasan Ishaq, who was sentenced to 16 years in prison and fined Rp 1 billion ($84,000)
for fixing the quota for beef imports.
The National Awakening Party (PKB) clinched the title for best performer among the Islamic parties, with quick count
results at around 9 percent, up from 4.9 percent in 2009.

Trailing slightly behind was President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono’s ruling Democratic Party, which garnered
9.70 percent of the votes.
The National Mandate Party (PAN) scored 7.50 percent, United Development Party (PPP) received 6.70 percent,
while the Crescent Star Party (PBB) gained only 1.60 percent.

Vote fragmentation
Political analyst Ari Dwiyapana from the University of Gajah Mada said the quick-count results should not be used as a parameter to determine the growth of Islamic parties.
He also warned that it would be wrong to assume Indonesians have a tendency to lean toward affiliations born from
religious ideologies.

“[The growth] is because the number of political parties taking part in this year’s elections have declined significantly,
which means there was less competition,” he said.
“Furthermore, the PKB, for instance, had also benefited from people who left the Democratic Party because of the
rampant number of corruption cases its top-level members had been involved in
This political migration had inevitably lowered the electability of the Democratic Party,” Ari added.
“There’s a shift in the flow of voters,” he continued, adding that despite the huge blow delivered by the conviction of its
former chairman, the Islamic party managed to maintain its loyal following.
“The minimum impact [of the graft case] on the party reflects the strong management skills of its members.
It has also amassed a significant number of loyal supporters, which could explain its stable voting outcome.
However, the party failed at attracting new voters,” he said.

Despite grim predictions going viral ahead of the legislative election, the PKS managed to gain a surprising 6.9 percent
of votes, only 1 percent lower than its results in the 2009 race.
Siti Zuhro, a researcher at the Indonesian Institute of Sciences (LIPI), conveyed similar sentiments, attributing the voting fragmentation to the low performance and electability of parties adopting the nationalist-religious ideology.
“With cases of corruption rampant in this country, political parties that built their foundations on religious nationalism no longer hold an appeal to the public,” she said.

Different political scheme
Siti said the quick count results clearly reflect the vast differences in the political scheme that existed during 2009’s elections, compared to the current situation.
“Indonesia’s political arena has changed drastically over the past several years. The Indonesian people have also changed; their access to information has expanded, they are now more exposed to different opinions and ideas,” she said.
“The sociopolitical issues experienced by each political party has skewed people’s views of them, which significantly contributed to a noticeable fragmenting of votes. The recent political scheme has reverted back to focusing on honesty,
moral values and democracy,” Siti said. “After a seemingly endless string of corruption cases, each party is trying put on
an air of confidence and repolish its image. Generally, the political parties have seen a slight increase in votes, the most remarkable ones being the Great Indonesia Movement Party [Gerindra] and the National Democratic Party [Nasdem],
after receiving more support than previously predicted by analysts and surveys.”

Siti echoed Ari’s cautionary statement by pointing out that the increase in support garnered by Islamic parties does not necessary reflect the people’s growing trust in them.
“Though Islamic parties have shown they have remained strong based on the quick-count results, it doesn’t say anything. Citizens are still widely disappointed by the greedy and corrupt behavior of politicians,” she said.
“With its poor performance and cases of corruption, the PKS, an Islamic party, is not a good example of a clean party,
no matter what its slogans of moral values say. This group used to represent the public’s interest, yet some have taken advantage of that trust.”

Election strategies and influential ties
Political analyst Yunarto Wijaya of Charta Politika said the recent data revealing the increase in support of religious-based parties should not be taken as a massively significant achievement, one that would change the parties’ electability in the upcoming presidential elections.
“Candidates and their respective parties should not grow overly confident from receiving a high number of votes in the
April 9 legislative elections,” he said. “Five years ago, 38 political parties competed for votes. This year, that number has dramatically dwindled to 12.”

Yunarto added that the main factors behind the Islamic parties’ success are their campaign strategies and strong ties between certain allies from influential Muslim organizations.
“I have to admit that the PKB recorded a remarkable increase [in votes] compared to others. This is caused by the return
of Nahdatul Ulama [NU] supporters to the party,” he said.
“This was previously predicted. As the biggest Muslim organization in the country, the NU has many loyalists.
The PKB’s positive performance was also due to the determination of its chairman Muhaimin Iskandar to win over NU’s influence and in selecting legislators who have strong ties to the organization.

“Meanwhile, the PKS has managed to maintain a wide range of supporters that aren’t easily rattled.
Most of them live in rural areas that rarely receive word of graft scandals brewing in the party,” Yunarto continued.
“However, the PKS has lost a significant number of its urban backers, particularly those in the capital. Despite the graft scandal, for its loyal supporters, PKS will continue to be an
institution with Islamic values — and that played an important role in the quick count results this year.
As for the PPP, its campaign slogan of ‘returning home’ aimed at reinstating the Islamic values it carried in 1955.
That promise is what made the voters cast their ballots for the PPP,” he added.

“The United Development Party may not have a promising presidential candidate, and it may be widely considered as mediocre party; it’s an old player in Indonesia’s world of new politics.
However, the PPP is home to many well-connected and experienced politicians with influential positions.
This heavily contributed to its rising number of votes,” Yunarto said.




Indonesia’s Widening Wealth Gap Becomes a Key Issue in Presidential Election

By Harry Suhartono, Neil Chatterjee & Novrida Manurun on 08:13 am Apr 14, 2014

Tedi Kumaedi earns about $87 a month selling instant coffee from his rusty bicycle near Jakarta’s stock exchange. At nearby TechnoBike, they’ve sold out of $25,000 Lamborghini-branded bicycles.
Narrowing the gulf between workers like Kumaedi, who toils for 14 hours a day outside a luxury hotel operated by Ritz-Carlton Hotel, and TechnoBike’s increasingly affluent customers will be among the biggest challenges facing the winner of Indonesia’s presidential election in July.

The wealth gap in the world’s fourth most populous country is widening, threatening President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono’s goal for reducing poverty before he steps down after a decade in power. It’s also restraining growth in Southeast Asia’s largest economy, as consumption by the poorest half of the country stagnated last year, according to the World Bank.
Growing inequality has boosted the popularity of Jakarta Governor Joko Widodo, whose Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) won the most votes in an April 9 parliamentary election and who leads opinion polls to succeed Yudhoyono as leader of the world’s third-biggest democracy.
“There is a sense of the big end of town enriching itself,” Hal Hill, a professor of Southeast Asian economies at Australian National University in Canberra, said on Thursday. “Jokowi seems a man of the people, and that’s a powerful message,” he said, referring to the governor by his nickname.

The country’s gini coefficient, a measure of income inequality, widened to 0.41 in 2012, from 0.35 in 2005, a year after Yudhoyono became president, according to the World Bank.
That’s above the 0.4 level that the United Nations has said is a predictor of social unrest, and compares with China’s level of 0.47 the past two years.

Income trap
The poorest half of Indonesians saw zero or slightly negative growth in consumption expenditure between 2012 and 2013, compared with 4 percent growth across the entire population and an average of 7 percent for the richest 20 percent, the Washington-based World Bank said in a 2013 report.
“This will ensure the middle-income trap is going to come sooner rather than later for Indonesia,” Enrico Tanuwidjaja, a Singapore-based economist at Nomura Holdings, said on Thursday, referring to an economic situation where a country attains a certain income and then gets stuck at that level.

The number of Indonesians living below the government’s poverty line rose by half a million people in the six months to September to 28.55 million, or 11.5 percent of the population, data from the country’s statistics agency show. The increase was caused by the government’s decision to lift the price of subsidized fuel last year and rising unemployment.

Poverty fight
Inflation ended 2013 at 8.08 percent, the highest annual level for five years, and unemployment rose to 6.25 percent in August, from 5.92 percent in February, according to the statistics agency.

Yudhoyono, who is barred by law from standing for a third term, said after being re-elected in 2009 that he would cut the country’s poverty rate from 14 percent to a range of 8 percent to 10 percent by this year.
“The rate of poverty reduction has been slowing,” Matthew Wai-Poi, a Jakarta-based senior economist for the World Bank, said in an interview on Thursday. “The distribution of economic growth has been much more to the richest 20 percent.”

At the Pacific Place mall near Kumaedi’s coffee stand, a McLaren showroom features a $750,000 MP-12C supercar and shoppers can win an orange Lamborghini that’s parked between rows of designer-clothes stores. Drivers of the sports cars or the Lamborghini carbon-fiber bicycles made by BMC Switzerland and sold at TechnoBike would have to contend with barefoot beggars and the Indonesian capital’s crippling traffic jams.

Conflict risk
The decline in the poverty rate over recent years may be masking increases in inequality because about three times more people are now classed as “vulnerable” rather than poor, Wai-Poi said. About 16 percent of Indonesians lived on less than $1.25 a day in 2011, while 43 percent lived on under $2 a day, according to the World Bank.
“There’s a bunch missing out in terms of growth,” Wai-Poi said. “There is a risk because higher inequality can lead to higher conflict.”

Rural areas where communities often have unrealistic expectations of the impact of resource-development projects are most at risk, said Keith Loveard, head of risk analysis at Jakarta-based security company Concord Consulting.
“There is certainly the potential for local issues creating tensions and violence,” Loveard said. “The growth in inequality that has occurred over the years of ‘boom’ times have logically created a stronger sense of resentment.”

‘People economy’
Yudhoyono’s successor will inherit an economy growing at the slowest pace since 2009, and a volatile rupiah that was Asia’s worst performing currency last year. That has raised the cost of imported staples such as fuel, soybeans and wheat.
“Improving income equality remains an important issue as the disparity can make Indonesia’s economy more susceptible to external shocks,” Aldian Taloputra, an economist at Mandiri Sekuritas in Jakarta, said by e-mail last week.

Prabowo Subianto, an ex-special forces general vying to be president, would build a “people economy” and boost funding tenfold for the agriculture industry that 70 percent of Indonesians depend on for a living, he said in an interview on March 19. Joko, the governor who introduced a free health care plan for low-income people in Jakarta, also plans to focus on agriculture, the Jakarta Post reported on March 23.

Presidential race
The PDI-P, which picked 52-year-old Joko as its presidential candidate, won just under 20 percent of the vote in the April 9 parliamentary poll, according to a preliminary tally by Lingkaran Survei Indonesia. Under election rules, presidential candidates must be backed by parties or coalitions that secured 20 percent of seats or 25 percent of the popular vote, meaning Joko may need to form a coalition before the presidential vote.

Indonesia has historically spent less on social assistance programs and infrastructure than its neighbors, and the new president will need to expand both to reduce poverty and take advantage of a growing working-age population, according to the World Bank.
“What you need to do is to have structural reform as early as possible as the window is closing” on the opportunity to exploit Indonesia’s demographic dividend, Nomura’s Tanuwidjaja said.












Hasil Penghitungan Suara Sah
Partai Politik Peserta Pemilu Legislatif Tahun 2009









PDI-P Fails to Convince Despite Win at Indonesia Polls

By Josua Gantan on 11:04 pm Apr 09, 2014

“We want to give thanks, alhamdulilah, we are grateful, grateful, grateful because the PDI-P [Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle] is ranked first in the quick counts,” Joko Widodo said on Wednesday.

While the PDI-P did emerge victorious according to the latest quick count, its victory was not as large as most predicted. In fact, the party failed to meet its own expectations.
The PDI-P’s national coordination meeting (rakornas) set the bar to a lofty 27 percent, but the party managed to clinch only 19 percent of the votes, as shown by most quick count polls.
The so-called Jokowi effect is an over-estimation as Wednesday’s election quick count results showed. A CSIS poll in mid-March indicated that the PDI-P would gain 33.4 percent of the vote due to the Jakarta governor’s presidential nomination. The reality, however, proved otherwise.

One reason cited by analysts for Joko’s popularity failing to help the PDI-P to the extent that was predicted, is that a large portion of voters who support Joko, do not feel the same way about the PDI-P. As the PDI-P failed to grab 25 percent of the vote, nor 20 percent of legislative seats, the party has not met the presidential threshold. Consequently, it will have to form a coalition with one or more parties in order to nominate Joko as its presidential candidate.
Arie Sujito, a political analyst from the Gadjah Mada University in Yogyakarta, suggested that NasDem and the PKB would be the PDI-P’s most likely allies. “NasDem is close to the PDI-P. So is the PKB, it is close to Jokowi,” Arie said.

The comeback of Islamic Parties?
Against the backdrop of corruption cases that shrouded the PKS, and what appeared to be an emergence of secularized youth voters, the Islamic parties have performed above expectation and beyond what most pollsters have predicted.

“It’s surprising. Religious parties were predicted to be in decline, yet they remain strong,” said Boni Hargens, a political analyst from the University of Indonesia.

The United Development Party (PPP) had 6.77 percent at the time of the writing, as opposed to the 5.32 percent it received in 2009. The National Awakening Party (PAN), which received 6.01 percent in the previous election, gained 7.78 percent of the votes in the quick count. The Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) was one percentage point down from its 2009 result of 7.88 percent. But considering the many corruption cases it had become entangled with in recent years, the support it received was beyond expectation.

The PKB which has strong ties with Nahdlatul Ulama — the nation’s largest Muslim organization — gained 9.88 percent in the quick count, almost double the 4.95 percent it had in 2009. This is seen as the result of its move to recruit Indonesia’s so-called “dangdut king,” Rhoma Irama, and showcasing an experienced statesman — Mahfud MD — as its main figures.
But Arie took exception with the view that suggests the increase in PKB’s support pointed to a stronger Islamic presence in Indonesian politics.
“Fundamentally, the PKB is not an Islamic party. It is rather inclusive. Although they used their ties with the NU, the PKB is a relatively inclusive party,” he said.
Arie emphasized that despite the PKB’s seemingly good performance, it would be a mistake to think that there was a revival of an Islamic political force in Indonesia. “The proof for that is that the PBB [Crescent Star Party] got only a meager percentage of the votes,” he said.

The PBB is indeed the odd one out. As the only Islamic party that appeared to have failed to meet the required parliamentary threshold of 3.5 percent, the party might not be able to enter the House of Representatives. At the time of writing, the quick count showed that the PBB appeared to have won only 1.60 percent of the vote.

Similarly, the Indonesian Justice and Unity Party (PKPI), appeared to have failed to meet the 3.5 percent parliamentary threshold, with the latest quick count showing that it managed to clinch a mere 1.07 percent.

Strong performance by NasDem and Gerindra
The National Democrat party (NasDem) won 6.78 percent of votes according to the latest quick count, well above pollsters’ predictions in March of 1.5 percent to 4 percent. NasDem’s result exceeded analysts’ expectation considering that it is such a new party.
It is also the only new party that was able to meet qualifications by the General Elections Commission (KPU) to join the election. The Great Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra) — also a relatively new party, which joined the political scene only in 2009 — nearly tripled its support from 4.46 percent in 2009 to 11.85 percent now.

A strong media presence — whether on television or on social media — boosted both the NasDem and Gerindra’s electability to a large extent. “We are ready to form coalition with any parties, including the PDI-P, for the presidential election,” Gerindra’s Prabowo said.

The KPU is expected to announce the official results of the election next month. Nonetheless, experience from past years shows that the quick count results, more often than not, are usually very close to the official results. Chances are, the political parties’ fate are already sealed by Wednesday’s quick count results, political analysts agreed.










04 April 2014 - 23:05 WIB Metro TV Dokumenter

Dengan menyajikan narasi-narasi kecil di balik peristiwa-peristiwa besar yang terjadi,
Melawan Lupa ditujukan bagi siapa saja yang menolak lupa atas segala hal
yang pernah terjadi dalam riwayat Indonesia.







Rabu, 19 Maret 2014, 21:02 WIB

Masa kampanye terbuka dimanfatkan partai politik (parpol) peserta Pemilu 2014 untuk menggaet suara masyarakat. Berbagai jargon dan janji politik disuarakan oleh parpol.

Ada yang mengusung janji menciptakan perubahan di Indonesia, menciptakan pemerintahan yang bersih, bahkan ada yang menjanjikan akan mengembalikan suasana Orde Baru dan mengusung nama mantan penguasa Orde Baru, Soeharto dalam setiap kampanyenya.

Hal itu mendapat tanggapan pengamat politik dari Central Strategic International Studies (CSIS), J. Kristiadi. ''Boleh saja partai menggunakan simbol atau figur seorang tokoh dalam kampanyenya. Hak setiap partai politik untuk menjadikan seseorang sebagai tokoh dalam kampanyenya. Nah, jika ada partai yang mengusung Soeharto dalam kampanyenya, ini seperti perjuangan melawan lupa,'' ujar Kristiadi di Jakarta, Rabu (19/3).

Kristiadi melanjutkan, Soeharto sebagai mantan presiden pasti ada jasanya untuk Indonesia. Tapi tidak bisa ditutupi bahwa Soeharto mempunyai kesalahan pada era kepemimpinannya. Rezim Soeharto kala itu diketahui banyak melakukan monopoli, baik monopoli kekuasaan dan kebenaran. Pada saat itu kebebasan berpendapat tidak ada, banyak asset negara dikuasai penuh oleh kroninya.

''Pada rezim Soeharto tentu banyak orang yang merasa tidak nyaman, takut dan lain-lain. Jika sekarang ada partai yang mengusung nama Soeharto sebagai jargon kampanyenya ini seperti membuka luka lama bangsa ini. Dan, ini bukan merupakan pendidikan politik yang bagus,'' jelas Kristiadi.

Pengamat Politik dari Lembaga Ilmu Pengetahuan Indonesia (LIPI), Indria Samego menilai, parpol yang membawa-bawa nama Soeharto dalam kampanyenya sebagai partai yang tidak memiliki inovasi.

''Partai yang seperti ini adalah partai yang tidak inovatif, tidak kreatif. Mereka seperti mengais-ngais barang lama saja. Mereka tidak menyadari bahwa kemenangan masa lalu partainya dahulu bukan karena partainya hebat, tapi karena permainan kekuasaan, pemaksaan politik,'' papar Indira.

Diutarakan Indria, saat ini para pemilih sudah cerdas dan kritis. ''Mereka akan menganggap parpol ini tidak melakukan pendidikan politik yang baik, karena parpol seolah-olah coba membuat masyarakat “rindu” dengan suasana Orde Baru, padahal kenyataannya tidak seperti itu,'' tuturnya.







Mega’s broken promises leaked
Hasyim Widhiarto,
March 16 2014, 10:50 AM

It appears that presidential hopeful Prabowo Subianto has all the reason to resent the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P)’s surprise decision to nominate the wildly popular Joko “Jokowi” Widodo as its presidential candidate.
A document outlining the political commitment of PDI-P chairwoman Megawati Soekarnoputri to support the presidential nomination of Prabowo — Gerindra Party chief patron — in the 2014 presidential election was leaked to the public only a day after the PDI-P announced the Jakarta governor’s nomination on Friday, providing PDI-P’s political opponents with a reason to question the integrity of the party and its leader.

The document, a copy of which was obtained by The Jakarta Post, contains seven articles and was signed by Megawati and Prabowo on May 16, 2009, the day they registered with the General Elections Commission (KPU) as presidential and vice presidential candidates for the 2009 presidential election.
Two articles, for example, stipulate that should Megawati and Prabowo win the 2009 election, the latter will be assigned to handle the country’s economic policies and granted a right to handpick related ministers, including agriculture minister, finance minister and energy and mineral resources minister.
The last article, considered the most crucial point, mentions Megawati will “support the nomination of Prabowo Subianto as a presidential candidate in the 2014 presidential election”. Prabowo is considered the most popular presidential candidate if Jokowi is taken out of the equation, according to various political surveys.

PDI-P deputy secretary-general Hasto Kristianto said he had learned about the leaked document but refused to comment on its authenticity. He, however, did not deny all the agreements outlined in the document.
“Such political agreements should be seen in the whole context, meaning all clauses in the document can only be implemented should the [Megawati-Prabowo] pair win the 2009 presidential election,” he said.
Law No. 42/2008 on the presidential election cites only a political party or a coalition that garners 20 percent of legislative seats or 25 percent of the popular vote in the legislative election is eligible to contest the presidential election.

In the 2009 election, the PDI-P only won 14.45 percent of the vote and desperately needed support from smaller parties, including Gerindra, to pave the way for Megawati’s presidential nomination.
Prior to Jokowi’s official nomination, Gerindra politicians repeatedly mentioned Megawati and Prabowo’s political agreement prior to the 2009 presidential election, known as the Batu Tulis pact, in hopes of winning the PDI-P’s support for a Prabowo nomination in this year’s presidential election.

Asked whether the document was intentionally leaked to attack Megawati’s integrity, Hasto said his party was ready to respond any political attack following its decision to nominate Jokowi.
Separately, Gerindra secretary-general Ahmad Muzani said he was sure the document was authentic but refused to comment on the allegation it was leaked intentionally.

Political analyst Yunarto Wijaya said the leak would not harm Jokowi’s presidential aspirations. “The agreement was made between two party elites. Jokowi has nothing to do with it. Even if the document is authentic, it might only change the public’s perception of Megawati, not Jokowi,” he said.
Yunarto also said that the PDI-P’s political opponents should have highlighted other issues, such as Jokowi’s decision to cut short his duty as Jakarta governor, to challenge his presidential nomination in an “elegant manner”.






Official: Joko Widodo Named 2014 Presidential Candidate by Megawati
By Abdul Qowi Bastian & Adelia Anjani Putri on 03:06 pm Mar 14, 2014

Jakarta. Will Indonesia look back on Friday, March 14 as the day the 2014 presidential election was decided?

The Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) nominated the wildly popular Jakarta Governor Joko Widodo as its presidential candidate on Friday, putting to an end months of speculation as to whether party chairwoman Megawati Sukarnoputri was readying her fourth bid for the highest office in the world’s fourth-largest country.

The governor took a break from an impromptu visit to subsidized housing in Marunda, North Jakarta to welcome the news on Friday. He told a crowd of reporters and local residents that he was prepared to mount a campaign for the July election.
“I have been given the blessing of PDI-P chairwoman Megawati Sukarnoputri to be a presidential candidate,” Joko said before touching his head to the Indonesian flag in a show of respect. “Bismillahirrahmanirahim, I am ready.”

The PDI-P made the official announcement on Friday afternoon as Megawati read from a handwritten note at the party’s headquarters in Lenteng Agung, South Jakarta. The one-time president made a direct appeal to Indonesian voters, asking them to support Joko in the coming presidential campaign.
“My command is, as the PDI-P chairwoman, to the people of Indonesia who have consciousness for justice and honesty wherever you are: support Bapak Joko Widodo as PDI-P presidential candidate,” Megawati read.

She also urged voters to keep a watchful eye for election fraud during this April’s hugely important legislative elections. Political observers expect the PDI-P, the country’s main opposition party, to receive a boost in the legislative race amid growing discontent with members of President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono’s ruling coalition.







International and local media are building up the image of
Jakarta Governor Jokowi as a potential 2014presidential candidate.

Similarity with the build-up of President Obama??



















Prabowo could be Indonesia’s Lee Kuan Yew
Stanley A. Weiss, Ubud, Bali
September 18 2013, 9:59 AM

If public graft were a symphony, Djoko Susilo might be its Mozart. On a salary of US$1,000 a month, the former head of
Indonesia’s police academy managed to amass a fortune of $18 million.
Earlier this month, Djoko was sentenced to 10 years in prison by the Jakarta Corruption Court for accepting a $2.9 million bribe for a contract that eventually lost the state $10 million.

On the same day Djoko was found guilty, a former Health Ministry official was sentenced to five years in prison for embezzling $1 million. Last month, the country’s top oil and gas regulator — revered as a “clean man in a corrupt industry” — was charged with taking $700,000 in bribes from an oil-trading company. All told, more than 360 Indonesian officials have been jailed on corruption charges since 2002, including cabinet officers, governors, members of parliament and judges.

At a time when every Islamic nation in the Middle East seems to be on fire, Indonesia — which has more Muslims than Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan and Egypt combined — appears to be a relative oasis of diversity and democracy.
On track to become one of the world’s 10 largest economies, this Southeast Asian nation is also set to witness the third consecutive direct election of its president next year after five decades of dictatorship.

But in a country where more than half of the population lives on less than $2 a day, Indonesia’s deepening corruption
at the highest levels isn’t just a threat to economic growth — it’s a ticking time bomb whose detonation could send shock waves across Asia, destabilize America’s China strategy and make the violence in Egypt and Syria pale by comparison.

“If Indonesia continues along the path it is currently taking — with high levels of inequality, high levels of corruption and poor governance — it will eventually lead to chaos and revolt,”

Prabowo Subianto
, the former commander of Indonesia’s special forces
and a leading candidate for president, tells
me in a private meeting.

“What has happened in the Middle East
over the past 24 months could happen in Indonesia, unless we change course
towards fairness, equality and transparency
iin government.



The toxic combination of graft and poverty has also fueled a sharp increase in religious-based violence, with 264 attacks reported last year. Among the potential presidential candidates, Prabowo has spoken most forcefully about the dangers of endemic graft and rising intolerance. He is also the person that many observers believe represents the country’s best hope for curbing corruption and Islamic extremism before it leads to violence.

Talking privately with Western ambassadors and business leaders, it is striking how often somebody mentions that Prabowo could become the Indonesian version of Lee Kuan Yew — the revered founder of modern-day Singapore, who took a corruption-ridden nation in the 1950s and transformed it into one of the least corrupt economies in the world.
Prabowo wasn’t always seen in such a positive light. When Indonesia’s longtime authoritarian president Soeharto fell in 1998, the former three-star general — then Soeharto’s son-in-law — was accused of leading deadly crackdowns against democracy activists.
Although never charged with wrongdoing, he was found guilty of “exceeding orders” by a military commission and dismissed from the army.

But in a nation where millions yearn for a greater measure of the strength and order that defined the Soeharto years, time has brought to the fore the qualities for which Prabowo is best known — what the popular former defense msinister, Juwono Sudarsono, defines as his “fierce loyalty to Indonesia, leadership, decisiveness — and toughness”
And like Lee Kuan Yew — who governed by the credo, “If nobody is afraid of me, I’m meaningless” — Prabowo strikes fear in the hearts of still-corrupt Soeharto-era cronies because, as one journalist tells me, “He is the only one they respect.”

As 2014 approaches, Prabowo has other advantages working in his favor. His campaign is being financed by his wealthy brother, Hashim Djojohadikusumo. In a nation with a history of Muslim-Christian violence, Probowo’s brother is a devout Christian, which is reassuring to many who fear a fundamentalist takeover in Jakarta.
At a time when elites pay scant attention to Indonesian’s poor, Prabowo’s Gerinda party — taking a page from the successful playbook of Thailand’s former prime minister, Thaksin Shinawatra — is strongly positioned as the voice of poor farmers, with a growing base beyond urban centers.

There is also a potential running mate who would ideally complement Prabowo’s discipline with a proven ability to achieve tangible, transformative results on the ground: Ibu Risma, mayor of Surabaya, Indonesia’s second-largest city.
Recognized nationally as a reformer, praised by popular Jakarta Governor Joko Widodo for her relentless dedication to improving the lives of average Indonesians, the woman known as “Mother Risma” also has a strong anticorruption record. She was the driving force in establishing Surabaya as the first city in Indonesia to implement a transparent e-government online system that reduced both costs and graft.

There isn’t another public figure in Indonesia, including Joko, who has a more sparkling record of achievement than the deeply humble Ibu Risma. With her on the ticket, it would prove that Prabowo is serious about cutting corruption with a partner who knows how to implement a clean and transparent government system.
Still, Prabowo’s path to the ballot box remains unclear. Under Indonesia’s election laws, any candidate for president must be supported by a party or coalition earning at least 20 percent of the popular vote in next April’s legislative elections. In the last national election, in 2009, Prabowo’s party won just 4.5 percent.

But he may have a number of potential coalition partners. Rumor has it that on his deathbed in December of 2009, revered former President Abdurrahman Wahid, known as Gus Dur, urged members of his Nahdlatul Ulama party — the nation’s largest Islamic organization, with 40 million moderate Muslim members — to strongly support Prabowo for president.
Maybe Gus Dur knew the same thing that Juwono believes, when he says, “Prabowo is the only candidate with the grit to become president.” With corruption increasingly drawing the ire of Indonesia’s citizens, by 2014, he might just have the votes to become president, too.

The writer, a global mining executive and founder of Washington-based Business Executives for National Security,
has been widely published on domestic and international issues for four decades





Kesiapan Calon Presiden

Sabtu, 24 Agustus 2013
Oleh: Fritz E. Simandjuntak

Kekuasaan Presiden Republik Indonesia, mulai di awal kemerdekaan sampai paska era reformasi, mengalami pasang surut yang cukup signifikan. Pada awal kemerdekaan Indonesia dan Orde Baru, Presiden memiliki kekuasaan yang sangat besar, karena memegang kekuasaan pemerintahan dalam arti luas.

Setelah Soeharto lengser tahun 1998, Majelis Permusyawaratan Rakyat (MPR) melakukan empat kali perubahan UUD 1945, di mana kekuasaan Presiden berkurang. Sementara kekuasaan Dewan Perwakilan Rakyat (DPR) semakin besar. Sebagai contoh hak prerogatif Presiden dalam hal Hubungan Luar Negeri, pengangkatan Duta Besar, serta kewenangan membuat Perjanjian Internasional harus dengan pertimbangan atau bahkan mendapatkan persetujuan dari DPR.

Presiden juga tidak bisa lagi menempatkan orang-orangnya di lembaga legislatif seperti yang dilakukan oleh Soeharto. Seluruh anggota legislatif benar-benar dipilih masyarakat yang dicalonkan oleh partai politik. Sehingga yang terjadi adalah DPR dan Presiden bisa dikatakan merupakan lembaga yang paling berkuasa di negeri ini dalam menentukan arah pembangunan. Tidak heran di era pemerintahannya, SBY membangun koalisi permanen agar suara DPR bisa tetap dalam pengaruh kekuasaan Presiden dan program pemerintahan SBY dapat berjalan dengan baik.

Secara vertikal, pengelolaan pemerintahan daerah juga tidak lagi sepenuhnya dibawah kendali Presiden. Gubernur, Bupati dan Walikota bersama parlemen daerah boleh menentukan arah pembangunan daerahnya sendiri. Bahkan apabila kepala daerah dan parlemen dikuasai oleh partai yang oposisi dengan partai asal Presiden, maka kebijakan nasional yang dikeluarkan Presiden bisa tidak berjalan dengan baik.

Namun meskipun kekuasaan Presiden telah dipangkas, jabatan Presiden tetap paling menarik di era demokrasi sekarang ini. Menjelang konvensi Partai Demokrat tidak kurang dari 11 orang menyatakan ketertarikannya untuk menjadi calon Presiden dari Partai Demokrat. Strategi jitu Partai Demokrat menjaring calon Presiden ini bahkan berhasil membuat kandidat lain untuk rela meninggalkan partai asalnya.

Pertanyaan yang paling penting buat kita adalah dengan segala keterbatasan tersebut bagaimanakah kesiapan Presiden mendatang menjalankan pemerintahannya secara efektif ? Michael Siegel dalam bukunya "The President as Leader" menyatakan pentingnya empat komponen kepemimpinan strategis yang harus dimiliki seorang Presiden. Yaitu visi kebijakan, strategi politik, struktur manajemen pemerintah dan proses pengambilan keputusan.

Adapun visi kebijakan adalah tentang prioritas kebijakan nasional ke depan, tujuannya dan apa yang ingin dicapai dalam waktu 5 tahun ke depan. Pertanyaan yang paling mendasar antara lain, mengapa harus jadi Presiden RI? Warisan apakah yang ingin ditinggalkan bagi negara ini? Apakah yang ingin Dicapai dalam 5 tahun ke depan? Kontribusi terbesar apakah yang akan diberikan kepada masyarakat Indonesia dan perbedaannya dengan Presiden-Presiden sebelumnya?

Sedangkan dalam hal komponen strategi politik akan menjadi sangat penting karena menyangkut kemampuan Presiden dalam mewujudkan visinya bersama partai politik dan lembaga kenegaraan yang lain. Pertanyaannya adalah bagaimana Seorang Presiden akan membina hubungan baik dengan seluruh partai, termasuk partai oposisi, baik yang ada di parlemen maupun di luar parlemen? Perlukah Presiden mendatang menunjuk satu orang yang bertugas untuk menjalin komunikasi dan hubungan baik dengan seluruh partai? Perlukah juru bicara? Bagaimana strategi Presiden menjalin hubungan dengan pemimpin daerah agar kebijakan nasional dapat dilaksanakan?

Komponen strategis ketiga adalah struktur kabinet yang efisien dan efektif melaksanakan visi kebijakan nasional Presiden. Pertanyaannya antara lain, apakah yang membedakan kabinet Presiden mendatang dengan kabinet Presiden sebelumnya? Apakah Presiden baru akan menerapkan makro atau mikro manajemen? Bagaimanakah agar terjadi koordinasi yang baik antara menteri dan juga dengan pemerintahan daerah?

Adapun komponen Strategis keempat tentang proses pengambilan keputusan. Pada tahun 2005, Presiden George W. Bush pernah menyatakan bahwa pengambilan keputusan adalah pekerjaan utama seorang Presiden. Masyarakat, partai politik, lembaga negara lain termasuk juga negara-negara lain memerlukan kepastian kebijakan dari seorang Presiden.

Pertanyaan selanjutnya adalah apakah proses pengambilan keputusan Presiden mendatang akan sama seperti Presiden sebelumnya? Kita semua tahu bahwa salah satu persepsi negatif di masyarakat tentang SBY adalah seorang "peragu". Berlarut-larutnya keputusan kenaikan BBM, antisipasi impor daging, kasus gereja Yasmin di Bogor dan HKBP di Bekasi, penyerangan Ahmadiyah di Tasikmalaya dan penyerangan warga Syiah di Sampang, dan perbuatan semena-mena organisasi kemasyarakatan berbendera agama tertentu dengan melakukan penyerangan kepada kelompok masyarakat lain. Semua kejadian tanpa kepastian hukum tersebut mengukuhkan sikap keraguan Presiden SBY dalam mengambil keputusan tegas.

Presiden J.F. Kennedy juga pernah menyadari kesalahannya dalam proses pengambilan keputusan yang sangat penting buat Amerika Serikat terutama dalam hubungannya dengan negara Kuba. Keputusan yang dikenal dengan nama "Bay of Pigs" dengan mengirimkan tentara AS ke Kuba berakhir fatal dan gagal.

Saat itu Kennedy terlalu mendengar para penasehatnya di luar kabinet resmi yang ternyata lebih cenderung memberikan masukan asal bapak senang dari pada masukan tentang apa sebenarnya yang dibutuhkan Amerika dalam hubungan dengan Kuba. Menyadari kesalahan tersebut, Kennedy melakukan perubahan drastis dalam proses pengambilan keputusan selanjutnya dengan membentuk Komite Eksekutif. Di mana seluruh anggota secara terbuka boleh mengemukakan pendapatnya dan Kennedy akan meninggalkan ruangan saat persebatan terjadi.

SBYpun pernah mengalami peristiwa tragis saat terlalu percaya begitu saja kepada staf khususnya terutama dalam kasus "blue energy" dan kasus gagal panen padi jenis Supertoy HL2 di Desa Grabag, Purworejo, Jawa Tengah. Dalam kasus lain terjadi kesalahan dalam proses pengangkatan Wakil Menteri yang gagal dilantik karena bertentangan dengan Undang-Undang.

Hal ini memperlihatkan ketidakcakapan pembantu Presiden dalam memberikan masukan yang benar agar SBY terhindar dari kesalahan fatal semacam itu. Pertanyaannya adalah sampai sejauh manakah para calon Presiden 2014 mempersiapkan tim kerjanya untuk mengelola manajemen pemerintahan 2014-2019 agar kesalahan semacam itu tidak terjadi lagi?

Secara ideal mungkin Indonesia perlu seorang Presiden dengan gabungan ketrampilan dari Bung Karno yang kharismatik dan pintar berpidato sehingga rakyat terpukau, Soeharto yang tegas, fokus, dan sangat strategis dalam mengelola manajemen kepemerintahan, Habibie yang ahli teknologi modern, Gus Dur dan Megawati yang komit terhadap demokrasi, atau SBY yang selalu mencoba memberi kesejukan pada masyarakat. Tapi harus disadari bahwa hal itu akan sulit dicapai.

Karena itu yang kita butuhkan adalah Presiden yang sudah siap dalam empat komponen kepemimpinan strategis di atas. Para calon Presiden harus terbuka mengungkapkan kesiapannya dalam keempat komponen tersebut. Kesemuanya itu diperlukan sebagai proses pencerdasan bangsa dalam memilih pemimpinnya.

Masyarakat jangan lagi terpaku hanya pada penampilan dan pencitraan seorang calon Presiden. Melalui keempat komponen kepemimpinan strategis tersebut masyarakat perlu tahu kesiapan calon pemimpinnya. Masyarakat ingin seorang pemimpin yang penuh energi membangun negeri ini Untuk kesejahteraan masyarakat yang lebih baik. Karena itu kepada calon Presiden saatnya membuka rencana komponen kepemimpinan strategisnya dalam 5 tahun mendatang. Selamat mengikuti kompetisi calon Presiden!!!!

Penulis adalah sosiolog dan tinggal di Jakarta.

















Jokowi will be a great president, but must focus on Jakarta first

The Jakarta Post July 08 2013

Almost all public opinion polls in recent months found that if an election was to take place today, the wildly popular Jakarta Governor Joko “Jokowi” Widodo would certainly win.
Political parties have warmed to the idea of nominating him for the top job in 2014, with the National Mandate Party (PAN) and the Democratic Party, have said that they will support the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) if the party nominates Jokowi in its presidential tickets.

PDI-P chairperson Megawati Soekarnoputri is reported to have prefer to have younger politicians on the 2014 presidential election stage, which many see as an endorsement of Jokowi.
But many in Jakarta just want Jokowi to clean up the mess in the city and stay on until his term expires in 2016, and think that maybe his chance is not as great as many have predicted.

Web designer, Anggoro Gunawan, doubts if Jokowi would be elected if ran for president in 2014.
“Most people in Jakarta come from Javanese and Chinese backgrounds. I’m not sure he could get many voters from people of different origins or that he would be popular outside Java,” Anggoro said.
He said that Jokowi could benefit from a broader political coalition.
“Indonesia is a very complex country and he would need more and broader political support,” he said.

Anggoro learned that some of his friends had voted for Jokowi and his running mate Basuki Tjahja “Ahok” Purnama in the 2012 gubernatorial election simply because they came from the same ethnic groups.
Eko Sulistiyo, who teaches Javanese art at a state university, said that Jokowi should focus on Jakarta first.
He hopes that Jokowi uses his leadership to transform Jakarta into one of the best capital cities in the world before setting his sights on the presidency.
“For me, to develop Indonesia doesn’t always mean that one should become a president. Being a governor is a way to make a better Indonesia,” he said.

Fellow Jakartan Rosdiana Hangka said that she was quite reluctant to see her favorite governor become the country’s president in 2014.
“Jokowi strongly supports the arts and cultural programs. He is aware that a nation’s identity starts with culture,” she said, adding that the recent Ariah musical at the Jakarta Fair as an example of Jokowi’s great support for the arts.
“I really hope that he focuses in his job as governor first even though it is unlikely there will be any other potential 2014 candidate of his caliber,” she said.

Meanwhile, a digital strategist of a multinational advertising company, Piotr Jabuwoski said that Jokowi had some similarities with United States President Barack Obama, with his progressive views, as well as charismatic and lovable persona.
“I am not surprised that his name is being tossed around in connection with the upcoming presidential election. I am sure that Indonesian’s young adults would choose him just like the American young people did with Obama,” he said.

Multimedia developer, Robin Corba, heard nothing but good about Jokowi whenever he discussed politics with his fellow Indonesians, but worries that it might be too early for Jokowi to think about the presidency.
“Jokowi is certainly making a good impression on the public,” he said, added that.
“I think it will take more time to actually see what changes he can bring to Jakarta.” (tam)










The Thinker: Prabowo-Jokowi?
By Yanto Soegiarto
May 29, 2013.

No Indonesian political figure has a higher presidential electability rating than Joko Widodo and Prabowo Subianto. In a survey conducted in April by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Jokowi and Prabowo topped all the lists.

Jokowi would get 35.1 percent and Prabowo 16.3 percent if the elections were contested by seven candidates and Jokowi would get 40.9 percent against Prabowo’s 19.3 percent if four candidates were to take part.
But that’s just what pollsters say. Politics is full of probabilities. Many analysts have over time been proven wrong in their predictions and even the most unexpected sometimes becomes reality. Jokowi won the gubernatorial elections in Jakarta, even though incumbent Fauzi Bowo had the backing of political heavyweights and plenty of funds.

Despite an ongoing campaign against him, Prabowo’s popularity still ranks higher than that of most presidential candidates. For the common people, Prabowo seems to be an ideal choice when compared with his rivals, who barely manage to get
he support of 10 percent.
But Jokowi and Prabowo can’t become presidential candidates yet. Jokowi doesn’t want to be nominated. Besides, his party boss Megawati Sukarnoputri, chairwoman of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), still wants to run for president herself.

Prabowo, although his Great Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra) nominated him as a presidential candidate, still needs to meet the threshold requirement of 20 percent of seats in parliament or 25 percent of the national vote. He may have to forge
a coalition with other political parties, but Gerindra is trying hard to expand its voter base.

Only the ruling Democratic Party, the Golkar Party and the PDI-P would likely be able to nominate presidential candidates without forming a coalition. The Democrats have no candidate for the moment but look forward to a party convention soon to name one. That could be Trade Minister Gita Wirjawan.
If Megawati is smart, she doesn’t run — as she would surely lose. She would be better off as a kingmaker.
Golkar is firm with Aburizal Bakrie as its presidential candidate while the PDI-P sticks to its decision that only Megawati
an run.

But in politics, nothing is certain. Who knows what would happen if Jokowi and Prabowo indeed get the nomination. If Megawati is smart, she doesn’t run — as she would surely lose. She would be better off as a kingmaker and nominate Jokowi as the PDI-P’s candidate for president. Or forge a coalition once again with Gerindra to nominate Prabowo. Or perhaps even propose a Prabowo-Jokowi ticket. As for the Democrats, President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono surely can
be a kingmaker, too. He knows no Democrat can match Prabowo’s popularity and might as well initiate a Democratic Party-Gerindra coalition.

Both Jokowi and Prabowo are nationalists who support the common people. Jokowi wants to promote education, health, housing and welfare while Prabowo sides primarily with the rural community, fishermen, farmers and cooperatives. Many believe that Prabowo represents a new hope in a country where corruption is rampant and present in all institutions and levels of administration.

Political analyst Indria Samego has said that Prabowo has a better chance to become a presidential candidate than other former military figures such as Sutiyoso, Wiranto, Endriartono Sutarto or even Yudhoyono’s in brother-in-law Pramono Edhie Wibowo. He also said that the perception of Prabowo as a strong leader boosts his chances.
There is no perfect president. Indonesia has since independence been led by Sukarno, Suharto, B.J. Habibie, Abdurrahman Wahid, Megawati Sukarnoputri and Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono. Each has had pluses and minuses. However, their proven achievements must be preserved and their mistakes must never be repeated.

Whoever wins the presidency in 2014, the interests of the people — justice, welfare, self-sufficiency and economic sovereignty — must become the top priority.

Yanto Soegiarto is the managing editor of Globe Asia, a sister publication of the Jakarta Globe.




Old soldiers: President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (right)
meets with chief patron of the Great Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra), Prabowo Subianto,
at his office in Jakarta on Monday.
The two former generals discussed the current political situation and a possible coalition.
(Antara/Prasetyo Utomo)


Prabowo, SBY deal looking more likely

Bagus BT Saragih, The Jakarta Post, March 13 2013, 4:23 PM

The widely publicized meeting between President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and chief patron of the Great Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra) Lt. Gen. (ret.) Prabowo Subianto has led to speculation that the two have struck a deal for a political alliance ahead of the 2014 presidential election.
The meeting between Yudhoyono and Prabowo appeared to have been stage-managed to get the widest media coverage possible, with the schedule for the meeting being distributed hours before the meeting took place.

Prabowo, who is a former commander of the Special Forces Command (Kopassus) and a friend of Yudhoyono from his military college days, was accompanied by Fadli Zon, his party’s deputy chairman.

According to Fadli, the two discussed “substantial matters” which included Yudhoyono’s latest trip to Europe and some domestic political and economic issues.
Fadli however declined to give more details of the meeting, especially on the issue of Prabowo’s presidential bid in 2014, saying that he was asked to leave the room when Yudhoyono and Prabowo had a 20-minute closed-door private meeting.

Prior to the meeting, Prabowo did not rule out the possibility that he and Yudhoyono could talk about a potential alliance ahead of the 2014 election. “Politics is dynamic. We’ll see,” he said.
After the meeting, Prabowo also was tight-lipped over his presidential bid. He only confirmed that he would run in 2014 but did not respond when asked about forging an alliance with Yudhoyono’s Democratic Party. “The President said in the meeting that anyone planning to run for president must be down-to-earth and listen to the people’s wishes,” he said.

Presidential spokesman Julian Aldrin Pasha said the media had read too much into the meeting. “Both men are old friends. They have met numerous times in the past,” Julian said.

Analysts, however, suspect that the meeting was part of Yudhoyono’s “political survival” and “exit strategy”. Because the Constitution prevents Yudhoyono from running for a third term, it would be necessary for him to ensure that all scandals implicating him or his family are swept under the rug when his tenure ends in 2014.
And as his Democratic Party has not picked a presidential candidate, the possibility of backing Prabowo’s candidacy is now greater with his electability rating continuing to rise.

“SBY may see Prabowo as the most prospective ‘safe house’ after 2014,” Freedom Institute political analyst Yudi Latif said.

Several politicians have been reportedly endorsed by Yudhoyono for the 2014 presidential election. They include State-Owned Enterprises Minister Dahlan Iskan, Trade Minister Gita Wirjawan and Coordinating Political, Legal and Security Affairs Minister Djoko Suyanto, all of whom are regularly overshadowed by Prabowo in opinion polls.
Another politician who is also believed to have been endorsed by Yudhoyono is Coordinating Economic Minister Hatta Rajasa, who is chairman of the National Mandate Party (PAN). But Hatta’s overtures to the People’s Conscience Party (Hanura) chairman and former chief of the Indonesian Military (TNI) Gen. (ret.) Wiranto has led many to speculate that the two could prepare a presidential ticket for 2014.

The possible alliance between Yudhoyono and Prabowo has concerned human rights activists, who have long campaigned against Prabowo’s presidential bid.
Commission for Missing Persons and Victims of Violence (Kontras) coordinator Haris Azhar said Yudhoyono could have offered not to endorse efforts to investigate the May 1998 human rights violation, which could implicate the former Kopassus chief, as an incentive to Prabowo.

“It is impossible for Yudhoyono not to be aware of Prabowo’s past record. In politics, the calculation is easy; what will I get in return and what I will give to you? In this sense, we are really concerned that enforcement of human rights is being used as a political commodity,” he said.
Opposition to a Yudhoyono-Prabowo pact also came from within Yudhoyono’s Democratic Party.

Young politicians within the party including former rights activist Rachland Nashidik and Ulil Abshar Abdalla said that part of the mission of the party was to prevent Prabowo from becoming the country’s next president.







The Race for Indonesia’s Next President

October 9, 2012

Indonesia’s presidential elections are nearly two years away. Yet residents are already debating who they think has what it takes to fill the shoes of current President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, who by law cannot run for a third term. The Wall Street Journal has spoken with voters and political analysts and come up with its own list of likely contenders, as well as some dark horses, who could surge in the public eye with the right combination of positive news, political support and campaign funds




Tim Chong/Reuters

Prabowo Subianto

Top Contender

The former general and ex-son-in-law of former
President Suharto has managed to rise in popularity recently despite allegations that he oversaw human-rights abuses during the Suharto era.

He denies the allegations but says Indonesia is ready for
a stronger leader. He heads the small Gerindra party and has seen his ratings soar in part due to his focus on rural Indonesia and his promotion of secular policies.

He is a successful businessman with his own money, but would need the backing of other political organizations to run because his own party does not currently hold 20% of the seats in parliament, which is required to nominate a presidential candidate.

Some analysts say Mr. Prabowo tops some polls because there are few other leaders to choose from, and that if he became a real contender, his political enemies would dredge up negative stories from his past in the military to try to scare voters.



Matthew Bigg/Reuters

Aburizal Bakrie

Top Contender

Mr. Bakrie is one of Indonesia's most controversial business leaders and the presidential candidate for
the Golkar Party, once the main political engine of
former Indonesian dictator Suharto.

He has the money and the political machine to run,
but analysts say he faces an uphill climb, for several reasons. First, he is not from the island of Java,
which traditionally is the source of most top
Indonesian leaders.

Another problem is that his name and companies
have often been connected with scandal, so some
voters looking for a candidate with an unblemished
record may look elsewhere.



Charles Dharapak/Associated Press

Megawati Sukarnoputri

Top Contender

Eight years after losing an election bid to
President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, the first daughter of former Indonesian leader Sukarno remains a powerful voice in Indonesian politics as chairwoman of parliament's third-largest party, the Democratic Party of Struggle.

Indonesia's first female president has been coy about her interest in running for president again in 2014.

If she does, many analysts believe she would struggle to win, with many voters looking back on her previous term
in office as less successful than Mr. Yudhoyono's, given the country's recent economic boom.

But recent polling suggests she would have a legitimate shot.



Ted Aljibe/AFP/Getty Image

Jusuf Kalla

Top Contender

A successful businessman from the island of Sulawesi, Mr. Kalla entered politics during his university days in a movement that supported former strongman Suharto in the mid-1960s.

After Suharto fell from power in street protests in 1998, Mr. Kalla served in the cabinets of two of his successors, Aburrahman Wahid and Megawati Sukarnoputri. In 2004, he was elected vice president alongside President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono.

Mr. Kalla lost his bid in 2009 to challenge Mr. Yudhoyono for the presidency.

Although he remains popular and is seen as someone who gets things done, so far he doesn't have the backing of a major party.

Analysts also often mention his age – 70 – as something that could hurt his electability.



Achmad Ibrahim/Associated Press

Hatta Rajasa

Top Contender

Though he is one of President Yudhoyono's closest
aides and has an important role in the cabinet as coordinating minister for the economy,
the white-haired Mr. Rajasa chairs his own political party, the National Mandate Party.

That party is too small to put forward a presidential candidate on its own under Indonesia’s electoral laws, so it would need the support of other parties.

As an indirect relative to President Yudhoyono –
Mr. Rajasa's daughter is married to Mr. Yudhoyono's youngest son – he might be able to get the backing of
the president's Democratic Party.




Sri Mulyani Indrawati

Wild card

Currently a managing director at the World Bank,
Ms. Sri Mulyani is popular with some Indonesians, especially urbanites who want more extensive political change after applauding her efforts to clean up Indonesia’s tax-collection system when she was finance minister.

While there have been attempts to create a political movement around her, she still lacks the support of a top political party that is needed to run for president.

More importantly, she has shown little indication recently that she wants to leave her influential job at the World Bank.



Chaiwat Subprasom/Reuters

Gita Wirjawan

Wild card

Indonesia’s trade minister has become one of the most important international faces of the archipelago.

Formerly the head of the Investment Coordinating Board, he helped attract a record amount of foreign direct investment to Indonesia.

Today as trade minister he has been helping tweak Indonesia’s economic policies to help the country get more for its citizens from the rush of new investment and trade.

The moves have worried foreign firms, who say they smack of protectionism, but are expected to be popular with voters



Dimas Ardian/Bloomberg

Dahlan Iskan

Wild card

Indonesia’s popular minister of state-owned enterprises started out as a journalist, so he knows how to spin a yarn.

He is regularly in the news with interesting and
sometimes controversial quips. Like many of the
other wild cards, he will have to get one of the
few parties with more than 20% of the seats in
parliament to back him if he wants to run.



Dimas Ardian/Bloomberg News

Joko Widodo

Wild card

Jakarta’s recently elected governor is a long shot,
but he was a long shot to be elected to run the capital region as well, and still broke through with a victory last month.

If he can maintain his image as a clean, hard-working politician who’s in touch with the people, and accomplish
a few things in Jakarta in the next two years, he might get the backing of a major party to run for president,
and win.



Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's Choice

Wild card

While President Yudhoyono’s party has seen its popularity slide as some of its members have been convicted in recent high-profile corruption cases, the current president’s choice for a preferred successor will undoubtedly carry some weight.

He still hasn’t said publicly who he will support.
It could be one of the people already on this list, or,
a new face.

Among the possibilities some analysts have floated: His wife, Kristiani Yudhoyono, or Coordinating Security Minister Djoko Suyanto.






Are Indonesia’s Ordinary Folks Backing Prabowo?
By webadmin on 12:10 pm February 19, 2013.

John McBeth – Straits Times

At the end of a lengthy interview in his Jakarta home a couple of months ago, Indonesia’s former president B.J. Habibie, still chipper and engaged in his 76th year, asked me what I thought would be the outcome of the 2014 presidential election.
I boldly suggested that if General Prabowo Subianto’s Great Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra) could put together an alliance that would carry him across the 20 percent electoral threshold needed to nominate a candidate, he would have it won.

Habibie and his associates around the table all uniformly scoffed at the notion, arguing that Gerinda would have to team up with a major party, such as the Indonesian Democratic Party – Struggle (PDI-P). And that, they insisted, wasn’t about to happen.
It was a typical reaction from the Jakarta elite. Just mention the retired special forces general and faces screw up in distaste. The talk quickly turns to either his human rights record or his hair-trigger temper which has already led to several desertions.

Habibie has his own strong reasons for disliking Prabowo, even if they were once friends. He has always accused him of attempting a coup d’etat after the then-vice-president took over from the fallen president Suharto in May 1998.
The problem, of course, is that all this has nothing to do with anything. Jakarta does not elect Indonesia’s president. Voters from the Java hinterland are the decisive voice — and they look on things differently, as I discovered on a road trip in 2009.

Back then, Prabowo was the last-minute choice of a running mate to former president and PDI-P leader Megawati Sukarnoputri. The pair ultimately failed miserably to defeat President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, who had deposed her five years earlier.
But the headline news for me was how popular Prabowo seemed to be among the rural folk of Central and East Java. Quite apart from dismissing his human rights record as old history, some of the PDI-P faithful even thought he should have been the candidate instead of Megawati.

Prabowo’s poll numbers suggest that hasn’t changed all that much, with his position as chairman of the Indonesian Farmers Association keeping him front and center on the national stage. It is possible he could even split the PDI-P vote.

In the world of real politics, Jakarta is just the wrong place to analyze a direct presidential election where the so-called orang kecil, the little people out in the boonies and in the urban slums, are kings for a day.
Too many of the elite think with their heart and not with their head. That’s why it was striking to see a recent poll showing Constitutional Court chief judge Mahfud MD and former vice-president Jusuf Kalla as the most admired prospective candidates.

Hard on their heels were former finance minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati, State-Owned Enterprises Minister Dahlan Iskan, former People’s Consultative Assembly speaker Hidayat Nurwahid, and Finance Minister Agus Martowardojo.
Prabowo lingered further down in 16th place, behind such figures as Trade Minister Gita Wirjawan, businessman Chairul Tanjung, army chief General Pramono Edhie Wibowo, and even East Java governor Soekarwo.

It was a classic Jakarta wishlist and, again, it meant exactly nothing. Not only were the respondents Jakarta-based journalists, political analysts, activists, doctoral lecturers and religious leaders, but few if any on the list will be candidates anyway.
Prabowo has many powerful enemies from the days when he used his position as Suharto’s son-in-law to lord it over his superiors. None more so than retired general Luhut Panjaitan, who heads Golkar candidate Aburizal Bakrie’s informal success team.

For those familiar with the enmity between the two, it would be fair to say that the former trade minister and one-time ambassador to Singapore is as much intent on trying to destroy Prabowo’s candidacy as he is about supporting Bakrie.
That also applies to Agus Widjoyo, and three or four other uniformed retirees on the team, which these days is divided between one group actively pushing Bakrie’s candidacy and a second group trying to create a less partisan think-tank.

Insiders seek to play down the team’s role and say any influence the older-generation soldiers may have is balanced by the presence of younger activists, who understand the importance of social networking.
Political leadership may still be dominated by the old guard. But when it comes to attracting votes there is at least an awareness in Golkar, as there is in other parties, that the focus must be on the country’s youth.

Fully 67 million of Indonesia’s 187 million voters will be going to the polls for the first time next year. That alone is 35 percent of the electorate, more if you add those in their 20s voting for only a second or third time.
A surprising number feel Prabowo represents change, not only in his ideas but especially in the strong leadership he will bring.

Indonesian Community for Democracy secretary-general Ratih Hardjono noted in a recent column that the first-timers will be unpredictable swing voters with few if any party allegiances.
“The current political elites in Jakarta will have no pull with new voters unless they start developing some capability to understand and embrace this emerging group of Indonesians,” she says.
Nothing is certain in politics, of course, and the anti-Prabowo campaign may well succeed in the end, with a younger populist candidate magically appearing out of the woodwork to take the country by storm.

One thing seems certain though: next year’s legislative elections alone could be a showdown to remember.

Reprinted courtesy of The Straits Times










Leadership Lessons in Jakarta Pave Way for 2014 Election

Pitan Daslani | September 23, 2012

Joko Widodo’s victory in the Jakarta gubernatorial election has caused many politicians to re-examine their approach in representing the people’s wishes.
The victory of the governor-elect, known as Jokowi, has vindicated a new theory that many of Indonesia’s major political parties actually do not connect with their constituencies.

Although they claim to represent millions of voters, the biggest irony in Indonesia today is that when it comes to electing a new leader, political parties’ aspirations contradict the wants of the people they represent.
This extreme conclusion emerged during the Jakarta gubernatorial election.
When the ruling Democratic Party joined forces with the Islam-based United Development Party (PPP), National Mandate Party (PAN), Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), and Golkar Party to support Fauzi Bowo, the challenger’s camp reacted humbly.

Megawati Sukarnoputri, chairwoman of the Indonesian Democracy Party of Struggle (PDI-P) said that she was “being mobbed by the big players.”
Her candidate, Jokowi, reacted to the establishment of the big coalition by saying that he would “set up a coalition with the people” because he believed that “people power would be enough” to confront the power of the big coalition.

People power
Based on the result of the first round of voting on July 11, it looked like Fauzi would win the runoff because PKS, PPP and Golkar had joined the ruling party’s coalition and, theoretically, their followers would vote for Fauzi in the runoff.
The coalition did not understand that those who voted for Fauzi during the first round could easily change their minds and go against him in the second round. The politicians did not understand that voters made their choices, not because they believed in the dictates of the political parties, but because they were smart and politically mature enough to use sound rationale and good political logic.

The politicians thought that Jakarta voters were the kind of people who could easily be misled and persuaded to buy into their ethnic and religious slurs.
They were wrong. Most of the voters refused to cast their votes based on religious and ethnic considerations. Even at the polling stations near the homes of Fauzi Bowo and his running mate, Nachrowi Ramli, most of the native Betawi voters opted for Jokowi and his running mate, Basuki “Ahok” Tjahaja Purnama. Ahok is a Christian of Chinese ethnicity, but his background did not matter to Muslim voters who constitute the majority of Jakarta’s population.

Learning their lesson
The first lesson that political parties need to learn is that voters are too smart to be fooled. They will abandon political parties that fail to understand what they want.
The most important characteristic of an increasingly prosperous society is that people want change and they want it to happen quickly to ensure justice, transparency, social solidarity and a better life.
The fast expansion of the middle class means that politicians need to redefine their approach to this economically powerful and well-educated segment of society lest they be abandoned. Outdated postures as well as ethnic and religious slurs come as an insult to such a level of society.

The second lesson that needs to be learned is that society wants a new generation of leaders. Old public figures will not “sell” well now because the Jakarta election, as the barometer for Indonesia, has produced young leaders with whom most of the voters, especially young people, associate themselves. Young voters look at Jokowi and Ahok as “one of us.” Jokowi was born in 1961 and Ahok in 1966.

The third lesson politicians must now learn is that today’s Indonesian voters hate bossy, bureaucratic-looking, aristocrat-like public figures running for office.
Such candidates will not be seen as “one of us” by the majority of voters whose new belief in democracy and human rights has torn down the walls that separated the haves from the have-nots. Jokowi’s humble lifestyle was more powerful than anything money could create as a magnet to attract public sympathy.
Instead of giving the people money to support him, it was the people voluntarily supported Jokowi in many ways. Even in the speech immediately after the announcement of his quick-count victory, Jokowi told supporters that he had nothing to give them right away but would work for the sake of Jakarta’s citizens and make sure that “nobody would be left behind.”

The fourth and most notable lesson from Jokowi’s victory is that money politics did not work here. Voters did not expect money from Jokowi, they only wanted a leader who could introduce change and live among them. So, it is political parties and transactional politicians who are spoiling society with money in order to satisfy their short-term selfish ambitions.

The fifth lesson for political parties comes from the televised gubernatorial candidate debates. Voters don’t like to see officials exhibiting a defensive — as if flawless — posture. At one point during the first debate on JakTV, Jokowi used the phrase, “according to a stupid person like me ... ” when he criticized Fauzi’s transportation policy.
Only a humble leader like Jokowi can do that. Public figures who hail from upper segments of society and who do no mingle with the lower walks of life would avoid using such a phrase because they think it would downgrade their image. That is wrong. Jokowi proved that by expressing such a humble remark, he drew millions of people to his camp with his humility.

A new lesson now is that in politics, arrogance is your biggest enemy and being defensive the quickest way to reveal your dishonesty and lack of self-awareness. Fauzi is actually a great leader, a smart architect who received a doctorate in Germany, specializing in city planning. But in terms of political communication, he failed to impress voters.

So, the sixth lesson politicians need to learn is that the power of a true campaign lies not in your appearance in front of the people’s eyes but in communicating with their hearts.
Ours is a society fraught with hypocrisy. Appearing defensively flawless — the ultimate goal of all the image-building campaigns — is a confirmation of the opposite. People don’t believe in appearances today. They believe in being one’s self, transparent and humble.

A brand new day
A new awareness is now growing in society that a true leader is one who serves rather than one who seeks to be served. Jokowi knows this very well and puts it into practice.
But we must also acknowledge Fauzi’s political maturity. He called Jokowi right after learning of his defeat and congratulated his challenger. This is the right attitude that must be socialized among political leaders.
Objectivity and patriotism in politics as such must be perpetuated in our culture.

The Jakarta election represents a huge political mirror for all the big parties to examine themselves. If they don’t make adjustments, voters will abandon them.
This is a prelude to the presidential election in 2014.



Two Candidates to Dominate the 2014 Presidential Election

Tuesday, 24 July, 2012

TEMPO Interactive, Jakarta:Chairman of Advisory Council of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) Taufiq Kiemas said that the presidential election in 2014 will be dominated by two candidates:

PDI-P chairperson Megawati Soekarnoputri and Democrat’s patron Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono.

According to Taufiq, these two still have strong support from the people.
Anyone who wants to be the candidate should obtain their endorsement, he said. “Or they will not win the election.
Mega and SBY remain strong factors,” said Taufiq on Monday, July 23.
Taufiq suggested taht Megawati and Yudhoyon immediately decide their candidates for the presidential election. However, he does not want to push his wife. “I just hope that she will do it soon,” he said.

Several survey institutions have shown that Megawati is a strong candidate from the PDI-P. Taufiq has rejected this idea many times. He would prefer a younger candidate from the PDI-P, but not his daughter Puan Maharani. “No, she’s not ready yet,” he said.
Taufiq said that the candidates should respect the state ideology of Pancasila, the 1945 constitution, the unity of the Republic of Indonesia, and the spirit of Bhineka Tunggal Ika (Unity in Diversity).




MONDAY, 30 JULY 2012 23:14

COMMENTARY 30.07.2012
The coming 2014 General Elections in Indonesia will be crucial because people will be smarter and more powerful in making their choice and deciding their fate, at least for the next five years. For the success of the elections, the Election Commission is expected to gear themselves to face any possible problems. The political situation is expected to be much hotter than before. President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono has also reminded the Commission to be more careful in holding the general elections 2014. Previous errors can be used as a lesson so as not to be repeated again.



All parties including the Commission should really be prepared to face the 2014 election, expected to be much more competitive and hotter than before. The contestants will consist of new face that will automatically strive to be the winner. Although up to now it has not been determined how many presidential candidates will officially join the upcoming elections, political parties have started to feature their candidates. It shows that the competition for the presidential candidates in the 2014 will be much more severe than before. Democracy maturation process that is now underway in Indonesia is also likely to be marred by various problems and conflicts. The Elections Commission is expected to be able to handle with all this. In addition, the Commission also must be able to solve the problem of voters list which has always been a thorny issue in elections in this country. Indeed, the problem is not simply the responsibility of the KPU and the government, but also the people and political parties, political party. It takes the participations of all components, to solve problems. Hopefully with the support and participation of the government and various parties, including all of the people throughout Indonesia, the upcoming 2014 election will be a true success, as well as producing a quality leader.




Background Note: Indonesia




IFES Election Guide

Upcoming Elections
Presidential - First Round July 2014

Population: 240,271,522
(July 2009 est.)



Description of government structure:

Chief of State: President Susilo Bambang YUDHOYONO *
Head of Government: President Susilo Bambang YUDHOYONO
Assembly: Indonesia has a bicameral People's Consultative Assembly consisting of the Regional Representative Council (Dewan Perwakilan Daerah) with 132 seats and the House of Representatives (Dewan Perwakilan Rakyat) with 560 seats.
* A candidate pair must be nominated by a party or coalition with at least 20 percent of seats in the DPR or that won at least 25 percent of votes in the last DPR election.

Description of electoral system:

The President is elected by absolute majority vote to serve a 5-year term.
In the Regional Representative Council (Dewan Perwakilan Daerah) 132 members are elected by single non-transferable vote to serve 5-year terms*. In the House of Representatives (Dewan Perwakilan Rakyat) 560 members are elected by open list proportional representation in multi-member constituencies to serve 5-year terms.**

* There are 4 seats allocated to each province, which is treated as a multi-member district. The DPD is advisory only.

** Parties must clear a threshold of 2.5 percent nationwide. Each party list must include at least 30 percent female candidates. Under a 2008 constitutional court ruling, voters may select a party, or they may select an individual. The ordering of party lists is fully determined by candidate preference votes.


Understanding Changes to Indonesia’s Electoral System and their Relationship to the 2014 Elections


Peter Erben is IFES’s resident Chief of Party and Senior Electoral Advisor for Indonesia

EVENT DATE: 2011-12-09

A fuller understanding of Indonesia’s election laws, the changes being debated, and how they may affect the 2014 elections is essential for any informed observer of the elections. Recently, new electoral laws have been passed and others are being debated in parliament that will have a significant impact on the legislative and presidential elections in 2014. Also, laws on political parties and electoral institutions have been promulgated, with the latter being challenged in the Constitutional Court. These laws will affect political party participation, as well as the composition and functioning of key electoral institutions, such as the Indonesian General Elections Commission (KPU) and the Elections Supervisory Body (BAWASLU).

New election laws being debated will likely deal with parliamentary threshold, seat allocation arrangements, and electoral district magnitude. Raising the threshold will likely create significant hurdles for smaller parties to win legislative seats. Changes in district magnitude could affect the number of parties in parliament, as well as the ratio between votes cast and seats won.

Several challenges in election administration also remain, including updating and rebuilding a reliable national voter list, and transmitting election results from polling stations to KPU for accurate tabulation. The transition of KPU’s entire senior leadership ahead of the next elections and KPU’s resource limitations will also affect the Commission’s capacity to administer the election.

Peter Erben, IFES’s resident Chief of Party and Senior Electoral Advisor for Indonesia, will brief us in depth on the significant challenges ahead in electoral law and administration in Indonesia, both at the national and sub-regional level.





Indonesia’s Pre-Pre-Pre-Election Frenzy
January 24, 2012, 11:00 AM SGT

By Joe Cochrane

Wildly divergent opinion polls. Intensified political mudslinging. The dramatic release of data showing which political
hopeful received the worst press coverage in 2011.
The New Year has certainly been accompanied by a shift into a higher gear for Indonesia’s upcoming presidential election, which is set to be the most competitive in the country’s modern history.
There’s one snag, however: The election won’t be held until mid-2014.

Perhaps Indonesia’s politicians have been over-exposed to the ongoing U.S. presidential primary races, or think an exhausting 30-month campaign strategy is not so bad.
Whatever the rationale, election fever is clearly in the air, if the steady flow of newspaper and television news stories is any indication.
“I don’t know where it started. In part, it’s a start of a new year; nothing else is going on,” said Kevin Evans, founder of Pemilu Asia, a Jakarta-based firm that collects political data.

Even if the politicking is a bit premature, the stakes are extremely high for Indonesia, which has Southeast Asia’s largest economy and is currently a darling of international investors because of its vast natural resources, large consumer market and stable politics. More than 170 million eligible voters will go to the polls in 2014 to choose lawmakers for national and provincial-level legislatures, likely in April of that year, followed by a new president in July.

Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono is nearing the middle of his second term in office and is ineligible to run again. No senior members of his Democratic Party, which has been mired in a series of corruption scandals, have emerged thus far as viable successors. One top Democratic Party leader had the most negative press coverage in 2011 out of nine possible presidential candidates, according to recent media reports citing a non-governmental organization’s research report.

Meanwhile, Vice President Boediono, a former central banker and economist who like many Indonesians goes by only one name, is widely seen by analysts as a technocrat with minimal political base.
As a result, the race for the presidency is wide open. Several high-profile figures including former President Megawati Sukarnoputri, business tycoon Aburizal Bakrie, former Army General Prabowo Subianto, and Economic Minister Hatta Rajasa, have been floated as potential candidates.

The Indonesian media is running almost daily stories about which candidate and political party might have the inside track, whic person could team up with the top candidates on a joint ticket to improve their chances, and whether any of the conflicting opinion polls are accurate.
“I think none of these current political parties that have the ability to put forth a presidential candidate even have a strong candidate,” said Hadar N. Gumay, executive director of the Center for Electoral Reform in Jakarta. “They realize that they have to work much, much earlier than the election schedule that we have,” he said. “Bringing it up in the media, or debating it, is a way to promote themselves and test the waters. I think that’s what they are doing.”

A slew of political surveys released last October and November each named a different presidential hopeful as being in the lead. Many of the polling agencies had been previously unheard of, leading to speculation that they were actually funded by the top political parties.
Mr. Evans of Pemilu Asia said that polling results aside, he believes there are only two serious candidates at this stage to become Indonesia’s seventh president:
Mr. Subianto and Mr. Bakrie, given their nationwide popularity and financial resources, among other things.
But he also noted that both men have electability issues.

Mr. Subianto’s party is polling in the single digits. Given that parties must win or be in a coalition that holds at least 20 percent of the seats in Indonesia’s House of Representatives to nominate a presidential candidate, he currently looks unlikely to get a nomination. The same thing happened to him in 2009, when his party won only 4.6 percent of the House’s 560 seats, ultimately forcing him to become Ms. Megawati’s vice presidential running mate.

For his part, Mr. Bakrie is a controversial Suharto-era political and business figure whose Golkar Party has repeatedly challenged Mr. Yudhoyono on legislative and policy issues despite being a key member of the president’s governing coalition. In addition, Mr. Bakrie’s name remains connected to one of Indonesia’s worst-ever environmental disasters,
when a blowout occurred from an underground mud volcano at an exploration site in East Java in 2006, operated by a
drilling company owned by his family-run conglomerate. The blowout, which continues to flow, inundated thousands
of acres of land including entire villages, and left thousands of people homeless.

Indonesian’s Supreme Court in 2009 ruled that the mudflow was a natural disaster triggered by a massive earthquake in Central Java a few days before, overriding claims by international scientists that it was due to drilling techniques by the Bakrie-owned company. Mr. Bakrie, who was a minister in Mr. Yudhoyono’s first cabinet at that time, said he was no
longer running his family’s businesses.

“In 2014, at the end of the Yudhoyono era, what will people be looking for? Something different,” Mr. Evans said.
“They are not looking for a Yudhoyono clone. They want someone that Yudhoyono is not. So who are these people?”

That, unfortunately, is going to take a while to figure out. While the latest twists and turns of the pre-pre-pre-election
season are fodder for newspapers and political talk shows, it’s far too early to determine whether one of the perennial contenders will grow stronger or a viable newcomer will emerge to seize the presidency, much like Mr. Yudhoyono did
when he was first elected in 2004.

“Any discussions or predictions before the middle of 2013 are useless,” said one Jakarta-based Asian diplomat.
The diplomat categorized ongoing public jibes among the various political parties – such as claims by opposition parties of interference by the government in the recently-released audit of a controversial 2008 state bailout of a private Indonesian bank — as little more than “mud wrestling” at this stage.

Indonesia appears to be in store for quite a bit more of it this year and beyond.






Since the fall of the 32-year old Suharto “New Order” regime in the late nineties, Indonesia has made a remarkable transition from repressive dictatorship to possibly the most dynamic and successful democracy in Southeast Asia. During the last parliamentary elections in April 2009, as many as 119 million Indonesians cast their votes in the legislative elections. All three national democratic elections held since 1999 are widely considered to have been fair and transparent. The paroxysms of sporadic violence that broke out following the breakdown of Suharto’s authoritarian rule were quieted; analysts who predicted the break-up of the largest and most diverse archipelagic nation in the world have been emphatically refuted.

Political Situation
In the last decade, Indonesia undertook one of the most ambitious programs of institutional reform attempted anywhere. Rapid decentralization of power, the creation of a credible constitutional court and an active and powerful anti-corruption commission are examples of such reform.

Indonesia's transition provides key lesson for democracy supporters»
Yet despite these remarkable achievements by the Indonesian people and its government, Indonesia has yet to fully consolidate its still fluid democratic systems. The 2009 national elections, meant to serve as an example of Indonesia’s continued transition to becoming a fully established and mature democracy, were instead a step backwards in the view of many observers. The country’s electoral system continues to be in a state of transition, with persistent complaints of flawed voter lists, frequently changing election rules, and still-occasional but troubling outbreaks of violence. President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, constitutionally barred from seeking a third term in the 2014 presidential elections, has seen his reputation damaged in a recent spate of corruption scandals inside his political party, Partai Demokrat. The legislative branch, despite significant improvement from its days as a rubber stamp for the Suharto regime, is seen by many Indonesians as a corrupt and ineffective institution. Political parties, which should be playing a central role in proposing alternative public policy solutions that reflect citizen priorities, instead struggle to define their political vision, engage voters and break free of the patrimonial patterns established in previous eras.

The 2014 elections mark perhaps the most crucial moment in Indonesia’s democratic transition since the fall of Suharto. With no clear presidential front-runner, the elections hold the potential of being the most closely contended in the nation's history. The incentives for increased electoral manipulation, vote buying and fraud are clear, at a time when the independence and competence of electoral administrative bodies is increasingly under question. Voter participation, while still high by international standards, has continued to shrink in each national election since 1998; citizens generally have low regard for political parties and the national legislature is likely a leading factor. If fair and free of violence, the 2014 elections could represent a crucial step forward in the permanent establishment of democracy in Indonesia, in a region where democracy has struggled to gain a consistent foothold. Otherwise, Indonesia could risk sliding backwards down a path of poor governance, illegitimate leadership and conflict.




Duel Si Nekat dengan Modal Kuat
Ramadhian Fadillah - detikNews
6 November 2011

Jakarta - Bergerak dan terus bergerak. Itulah perintah Aburizal Bakrie pada pengurus dan kader Partai Golkar. Ketua Umum Partai Golkar itu juga tidak akan tinggal diam setelah memberi perintah. Ia pun akan bergerak dengan seabrek agenda. Tujuannya jelas, memuluskan langkah menuju RI-1.
Ical telah diminta menjadi capres Golkar dalam Rapimnas Golkar, akhir Oktober 2011 lalu. DPD Golkar dari 33 Provinsi secara bulat mendaulat Ical untuk maju sebagai capres.

Dalam peringatan HUT ke-47, Golkar pun tanpa malu-malu mengumumkan mantan Menko Kesra itu sebagai capresnya. Spanduk besar bertuliskan 'Ical For RI-1' terpampang dalam HUT Golkar, di Gelora Bung Karno, 29 Oktober 2011 lalu. Maka malam itu pula, di depan Presiden SBY dan Wapres Boediono, perwakilan negara sahabat serta sejumlah tokoh nasional, Ical mengungkap siap jadi capres dengan bermetafora.
"Berkompetisi dalam kebaikan. Tahun lalu, langit biru dan padi sudah mulai menguning. Tahun ini saya laporkan, padi terus menguning semakin matang dan akan menjadi beras pada tahun 2014," ujar Ical dengan percaya diri.

Analogi Ical membuat SBY yang juga ketua umum Partai Demokrat tertawa kecil. Melihat SBY tertawa, Ical ikut tersenyum senang.
Malam itu tentu menjadi malam yang menyenangkan bagi Ical dan Golkar. Jalan menuju kursi RI-1 tampak begitu mulus. Ical telah mengantongi laporan dinobatkan sebagai capres paling populer oleh Reform Institute.

Dalam survei Reform Institute itu, pengusaha kelas kakap ini mendapatkan 13,58 % suara. Ia mengungguli capres lainnya, seperti Prabowo Subianto (8,46 %), Jusuf Kalla (7,06 %), Hidayat Nurwahid (5,17 %) dan Ani Yudhoyono (4,13 %).
Mengapa Ical ‘mendadak’ populer? Menurut Reform Insitute, hal itu tidak terlepas dari banyaknya poster dan spanduk Ical serta program-program Golkar yang terpampang di mana-mana. Iklan Ical dan Golkar itu cukup mendongkrak elektabilitas Ical.

"Kami menemukan fakta yang menarik. Dari survei yang kami lakukan, ternyata pemilih Ical adalah pedagang kecil, dan masyarakat bawah,” ujar Direktur Pengembangan Reform Institute Abdul Hamid.
Para wong cilik itu terpesona pada Ical sebab rata-rata menginginkan perubahan ke arah yang lebih baik. Mereka merasa Ical bisa mewujudkan impian itu.
Partai Golkar pun menyambut baik survei yang mengunggulkan ketua umum mereka. Menurut Wasekjen Partai Golkar Leo Nababan, kepopuleran Ical terlihat dari dukungan 33 DPD Golkar yang akan mengusung Ical maju capres tanpa perlu konvensi. Padahal konvensi sudah menjadi tradisi Partai Golkar sejak era Akbar Tandjung.

"Semua DPD sudah mendukung Pak Ical maju sebagai capres. Untuk apa lagi konvensi? “ beber Leo.
Leo tidak setuju dengan konvensi sebab dua capres Golkar hasil konvensi, Wiranto dan Jusuf Kalla, justru kalah dalam Pilpres.
Untuk memuluskan langkah Ical, Golkar menetapkan tahun 2012 sebagai tahun kekaryaan. Ical akan terus berkeliling Indonesia sepanjang 2012. Targetnya, suara Golkar naik dan tentunya elektabilitas Ical ikut terkerek.

Ical memang tidak asal-asalan memburu RI-1. Ia memiliki sejumlah modal. Ia menggenggam dukungan parpol sebagai kendaraan politik. Lalu kuat secara financial, menurut majalah Forbes memiliki harta US$ 2,5 miliar. Juga punya media massa baik online dan TV.
Dengan modal internal yang kuat, wajar Ical mantap melaju memburu RI-1. Terlebih pesaing berat Ical pun tidak banyak."Ical wajar merasa pede. SBY sudah tidak mungkin maju lagi," ujar pengamat politik Charta Politica Arya Fernandes.
Meski demikian, bukan berarti Ical bisa bebas melenggang menuju kursi RI-1. Partai Gerindra telah menabuh genderang perang untuk berebut kursi tertinggi itu. Letjen (Purn) Prabowo Subianto diusung sebagai capres. Modal Prabowo pun bukan kertas kosong.

Sama dengan Ical, Prabowo juga diunggulkan sebagai capres terpopuler. Bila Ical terpopuler versi Reform Institute, maka Prabowo versi Soegeng Sarjadi Syndicate (SSS). Dalam survei ini, Prabowo unggul dengan angka 28 %, jauh meninggalkan Ical yang hanya meraih posisi empat. Posisi kedua ditempati Mahfud MD (10,6 %). Lalu disusul Sri Mulyani Indrawati (7,4 %). Baru Ical (6,8 %), KH Said Agil Siradj (6 %) dan Din Syamsuddin (5,2 %).
SSS menyimpulkan Prabowo muncul sebagai capres terpopuler karena latar belakang militer dan figurnya yang dinilai tegas di tengah kekecewaan pada pemimpin sipil. "Gejala seperti ini boleh jadi dipicu oleh lemahnya kaderisasi dan rekrutmen kepemimpinan di kalangan politisi sipil," ujar peneliti SSS Ari Nurcahyo.

Gerindra tidak terkejut dengan survei SSS. Parpol ini makin yakin sosok Prabowo memang diminati masyarakat untuk menjadi presiden. Gerindra telah melakukan survei internal dan hasilnya Prabowo memang selalu nomor satu. "Saya kira survei SSS ini bisa diakui legalitasnya," ujar Wakil Ketua Umum Partai Gerindra Fadli Zon.
Sama dengan Golkar yang terus bergerak. Gerindra pun terus bebenah sejak kekalahan Prabowo 2009 lalu. Konsolidasi internal terus dilakukan. Motor partai hingga ke tingkat pengurus ranting coba digerakan.

Seperti Pemilu sebelumnya, Gerindra tetap akan mengusung jargon ekonomi kerakyatan. Prabowo kembali menjanjikan perubahan ekonomi kerakyatan dan kesejahteraan bagi petani, rakyat kecil dan pedagang pasar. Selain wong cilik, Gerindra juga menyasar kalangan terdidik yang rindu pemimpin yang tegas.
Soal dana, Prabowo sama sekali tak kekurangan. Tahun 2009 dia adalah capres terkaya dengan kekayaan Rp 1,57 triliun dan US$ 7,5 juta. Dukungan dana dari perusahaan miliknya maupun back up penuh dari sang adik, Hashim Djojohadikusumo, membuat mantan jenderal ini juga punya modal besar untuk menyaingi Ical."Prabowo akan jadi lawan tangguh untuk Ical," jelas Arya Fernandes.

Persaingan Ical dan Prabowo diprediksi akan makin memanas pada 2014. Sama-sama punya basis massa, punya dana dan merupakan orang yang cukup senior dalam kancah perpolitikan nasional. Sementara capres populer sebelumnya seperti SBY dan Mega tidak akan maju lagi.

Namun bukan berarti keduanya akan diterima dengan mudah. Sosok Prabowo dan Ical sama-sama punya cacat masa lalu. Prabowo selalu dikait-kaitkan dengan isu penculikan dan pelanggaran HAM, sementara Ical dikaitkan dengan tragedi lumpur Lapindo yang membuat ribuan orang kehilangan tempat tinggal. Namun keduanya tetap nekat bertarung dalam Pilpres 2014. Siapa pemenangnya?

Tulisan detik+ selanjutnya: 'Jenderal 08 Tak Kapok Dipecundangi', 'Di Atas Kertas Ical Kuat, Faktanya?' dan 'Sulitnya Mencari Pasangan untuk Menang' serta laporan khusus 'Seram, Jakarta Segera Tenggelam' bisa anda dapatkan di detiKios for Ipad yang tersedia di apple store.





The 2104 presidential election
will likely see a duel between general-turned-businessman Prabowo Subianto
and Golkar Party chairman and business tycoon Aburizal “Ical” Bakrie,
according to political observers.

A survey by the Reform Institute pegged Aburizal as the early favorite with 13.58 percent,
followed by Prabowo Subianto with 8.46 percent, Jusuf Kalla with 7.06 percent,
Hidayat Nurwahid with 5.17 percent and First Lady Ani Yudhoyono with 4.13 percent.




Surveys Name Three Presidential Candidates

"Megawati, Prabowo, and Aburizal are the three strongest candidates"

27 Oktober 2011



27 Oktober 2011

"Megawati, Prabowo, and Aburizal
are the three strongest candidates,"
said Widdi Aswindi, JSI Executive Director.



VIVAnews - Three research institutes have released surveys on the electability of party and presidential candidates.
All three revealed a number of figures who are considered the most popular to participate in the 2014 general elections.

Reform Institute, which conducted the survey between September 12 to 24, 2011, found that if Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and Megawati Sukarnoputri are excluded, General Chairman of Golkar Party Aburizal Bakrie tops the list with 13.58 percent of votes. Prabowo Subianto follows with 8.46 percent, Jusuf Kalla 7.06 percent, Hidayat Nurwahid 5.17 percent, and Ani Yudhoyono 4.13 percent.

Soegeng Sarjadi Syndicate (SSS) which held the surveys on October 3-8, 2011, stated, if Yudhoyono and Megawati are not involved, Prabowo would garner most of the votes, by 28 percent of the respondents. Coming next are Mahfud MD with 10.6 percent, Sri Mulyani Indrawati 7.4 percent, Aburizal Bakrie 6.8 percent, KH Said Aqil Siradj 6 percent, Din Syamsuddin 5.2 percent, Pramono Edhie Wibowo 4.2 percent, Jusuf Kalla 4.0 percent and a dozen other names pocketing below 4 percent.

SSS also conducted a special survey on vice presidential candidates. Mahfud MD is the figure for whom respondents would vote, amounting to 15.6 percent. After him are Sri Mulyani with 8 percent, Pramono Edhie Wibowo 7.1 percent, Din Syamsuddin 6.8 percent, Said Aqil Siradj and Djoko Suyanto each 3.9 percent, and Puan Maharani 3 percent.

A different name list was resulted by Indonesia Vote Network (JSI), which surveyed on October 10 to 15, 2011. Being included in this survey, Megawati was selected as a presidential candidate with the highest support, which is 19.6 percent. Other presidential candidates whom the general public prefer after Megawati are, successively, Prabowo Subianto (10.8 percent), Aburizal Bakrie (8.9 percent), Wiranto (7.3 percent), Sri Sultan Hamengkubuwono X (6.5 percent) , Hidayat Nur Wahid (3.8 percent), Surya Paloh (2.3 percent), Sri Mulyani (2 percent), Ani Yudhoyono (1.6 percent), Hatta Rajasa (1.6 percent), Anas Urbaningrum (1, 5 percent), Sutanto (0.2 percent), and Djoko Suyanto (0.2 percent).

"Megawati, Prabowo, and Aburizal are the three strongest candidates," said Widdi Aswindi, JSI Executive Director.
• VIVAnews



Prabowo ranked highest as presidential candidate
Wed, October 26 2011 21:03

Jakarta (ANTARA News) - Prabowo Subianto, chairman of the Advisory Board of the Great Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra), is ranked the highest as a presidential candidate, according to survey results released here on Wednesday.

The results of the survey by the Soegeng Sarjadi Syndicate from October 3-8, 2011 in 33 provinces in the country involving 1,318 respondents showed 28 percent of respondents chose Prabowo as presidential candidate while 10.6 percent chose Constitutional Court chairman Mahfud MD.

Other candidates included former economic minister Sri Mulyani (7.4 percent), Golkar Party chairman Aburizal Bakrie
(6.8 percent), Nahdlatul Ulama Islamic organization chief Said Akil Siradj (6.0 percent), Muhammadiyah Islamic leader
Din Syamsuddin (5.2 percent), army chief of staff General Pramono Edhie Wibowo (4.2 percent), former vice president
Jusuf Kalla (4.0 percent), chief security minister Djoko Suyanto (3.2 percent), chief economic minister Hatta Rajasa
(2.8 percent) and businessman Surya Paloh (2.5 percent).

Soegeng Saryadi Syndicate executive director Toto Sugiarto said most respondents had chosen a military figure to be
the country`s next president because they missed a strict leader and therefore 65 percent had chosen Prabwowo.
"33.8 percent of respondents still believe a military figure is fit to be elected president in 2014," he said.
Second in the ranking was an academic collecting 17.2 votes, followed by religious figure (12.1 percent), businessman (9.7 percent) and political party figure (8.9 percent).
The results of the survey done based on a stratified random sampling indicated that the military-civilian dichotomy has not yet completely vanished.

The choice of a military figure correlates with public desire for the government to focus on corruption eradication.
A total of 40.5 percent of respondents urged the government to immediately settle the corruption and bribery problems.
Other problems needing urgent settlements were poverty according to 29.8 percent of respondents, unemployment (16 percent), mafia operations in all sectors (10.4 percent) and sovereignty (3.1 percent).

About a vice president, most respondents choose an honest and smart person. The two qualities were represented in Constitutional Court figure Mahfud MD who won 15.6 percent of votes.
Following him were Sri Mulyani Indrawati (8.0 percent), Pramono Edhie Wibowo (7.1 percent), Din Syamsuddin (6.8 percent), KH Said Aqil Siradj (6.3 percent), Djoko Suyanto (3.9 percent) and Puan Maharani, the daughter of former president Megawati Soekarnoputri (3.0 percent).

Earlier, the Reform Institute issued survey results showing Aburizal Bakrie to be the most popular figure as a candidate for the 2014 presidential elections. He obtained 13.58 percent votes of 2,010 respondents involved in the survey.
In the survey Prabowo Subianto was ranked second with 8.46 percent of the votes.

Editor: Priyambodo RH


Golkar announces Bakrie as candidate for 2014 presidential elections
The Jakarta Post, Jakarta | Mon, 09/12/2011 4:27 PM

Aburizal Bakrie

The Golkar Party has come up with a consensus during the national consolidation meeting in Denpasar, Bali, to support party chairman Aburizal Bakrie in his run for the 2014 presidential elections.

"The [consolidation] meeting was initially scheduled to run for two days from Sunday to Monday but it was shortened since the Golkar executive board unanimously agreed to support Aburizal Bakrie as the party's presidential candidate for 2014," said Ketut Sudikerta, chairman of Golkar's Bali chapter, on Monday as quoted by Antara news wire.

Ketut said that Bakrie was the right man to represent the people.
"Pak Ical is the right figure to lead Indonesia in the future. We are optimistic lending our support to him," Sudikerta said, "Ical" refers to Aburizal's nickname.
According to Ketut, the Bali consensus will be officially formulated at the party's national leaders meeting, which will be
held as soon as possible.

Ical tones down presidential bid talk
Bagus BT Saragih, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta | Thu, 10/27/2011 6:48 AM

Despite signs of internal support, businessman and Golkar Party chairman Aburizal “Ical” Bakrie is playing down plans to run for president in 2014.
Ical, dubbed one of the strongest potential contenders in 2014, has been called Golkar’s most appropriate candidate by party officials at the regional level.

“People have aspirations … that’s normal. This is democracy,” Ical said on the sidelines of Golkar’s national executive board meeting in North Jakarta on Wednesday.
Ical said he would not rush into running for president, wanting to focus on improving the popularity of Golkar’s legislative candidates during the run-up to the election.

“In the last legislative election we received 14.45 percent [of the vote]. Recent surveys show our popularity is at 18 percent. I believe we can reach 20 percent, or even 30 or 35 percent, in the 2014 election – more than the PDI-P [Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle] received in the 1999 election,” Ical said in his speech at the meeting.
“Our study of the aspirations of Golkar at the grassroots level nationwide is still not enough.”
Ical said Golkar’s would name its presidential candidate in 2012.

Observers expected the meeting to be a forum for the party to formally back Ical as its candidate in 2014.

The agenda of the meeting, which ends on Friday, includes a discussion of the upcoming election.
The meeting on Wednesday was attended by more than 700 Golkar members from across the nation, who crowded the meeting room while shouting “Go Golkar!”
Delegates applauded during the opening address of meeting chairman Sharif Cicip Sutarjo after he dubbed Ical as “the most recognizable figure to be the next president.”
A Golkar member from South Kalimantan who declined to be named said that party officials down to the regency level in the province agreed to support Ical should he be named the party’s candidate.
“We have no other option,” another Golkar member from Papua said.

Analysts have called Ical’s reluctance to openly or quickly accept support for a presidential bid part of a wait-and-see strategy to gauge the response of other major political groups.
Several surveys have named Ical one of the most popular potential candidates in 2014.
However, observers have said Ical’s bid could face serious threats from other potential hopefuls, such as former Army Strategic Reserves Command chief Lt. Gen. (ret.) Prabowo Subianto, the founder of the Great Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra); and former Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati.
Some surveys, however, have placed Ical behind PDI-P chairwoman and former president Megawati Soekarnoputri, the daughter of the nation’s first president.

Observers said that the ongoing mud flow disaster in Sidoarjo, East Java, which has been linked to an operational failure by energy companies belonging to the Bakrie family, might be a liability that competitors could exploit during the race.
Others said that the Democratic Party’s best option to replace Yudhoyono, who cannot run for relection due to term limits, would be to nominate reform icon Sri Mulyani as its presidential candidate.
Yudhoyono’s latest Cabinet reshuffle, which included the firing of Fadel Muhammad as Maritime Affairs and Fishery Minister, was seen by some as an effort to please Ical.

Fadel, a top Golkar executive, had close ties to Golkar chief patron Akbar Tandjung, who frequently opposed Ical’s policies within the party.




Possible Candidates


Sri Mulyani Indrawati, Managing Director of World Bank Group, former Minister of Finance[5]


Anas Urbaningrum, chairman of Democratic Party[6]


Prabowo Subianto, former Army Strategic and Reserve (KOSTRAD) commander and 2009 vice presidential candidate [7]


Aburizal Bakrie, chairman of Golkar Party [8]


Hatta Rajasa, Coordinating Minister for Economy [9]


Mahfud MD, Chairman of Indonesian Constitutional Court [10]


Wiranto, former Indonesian Armed Forces commander and 2004 presidential candidate, 2009 vice presidential candidate[11]


Megawati Soekarnoputri, former president [12]


Jusuf Kalla, former Vice President [13]


Sutiyoso, former Governor of Jakarta [14]


Pramono Edhie Wibowo, Army Chief of Staff [15]


Presidential Candidates 2014






Interview with Lt.General (Ret) Sayidiman Suryohadiprodjo
Jakarta, 28 July 2011

Foreign diplomats have contacted PPDA, the Association of Retired Army Officers, to seek support for the candidacy of
Sri Mulyani as President.

Sri Mulyani, World Bank Managing Director a in Washington DC, was Finance Minister in the current SBY government
prior to her Worlbank appointment.

Lt General (Ret) Sayidiman told Indonesia Digest Editor in an intervew that when he heard the news, he immediately sought confirmation from PPAD.

Lt General (Ret) Kiki Sjahnakri (PPAD Head Research Department) confirmed to him that a US embassy official had contacted him on the subject, whilst an Australian envoy had talked to a number of PPAD members.

I consider this intervention in Indonesian affairs, he said.
He explained that in his opinion the US does not want to lose control on Indonesia for various reasons.



LetJen TNI (Purn) Sayidiman Suryohadiprojo ,
mantan Gubernur Lemhannnas (1974),
terakhir Penasehat Presiden Habibie urusan ketahanan nasional
Jakarta 31 July 2011

Jakarta, 31 July 2011
News widely circulated in the country that foreign diplomats had approached the PPAD (Persatuan Purnawirawan Angkatan Darat - Association of Retired Army Officers) in an attempt to seek their support for the candidacy of
Sri Mulyani as President in the upcoming 2014 presidential elections.

Sri Mulyani, World Bank Managing Director in Washington DC, was Finance Minister in the current SBY government
prior to her Worlbank appointment.

Lt General (Ret.) Sayidiman Suryohadiprodjo told Indonesia Digest Editor that when he heard the news, he immediately sought confirmation from PPAD.

"Lt General (Ret) Kiki Sjahnakri confirmed to me that a US embassy official had contacted him on the subject, whilst an Australian envoy had talked to a number of PPAD members."

I consider this intervention in Indonesian affairs", Mr Saydiman said.
As regards the reason for the intervention he stated: "The US does not want to lose control over Indonesia.".



The US and Australia supporting Sri Mulyani for President.
What is behind this attempt to promote the candidacy if Sri Mulyani with the support of the US and Australia?
They certainly must have been aware of the fact that their invasive attempts would immediately receive wide publicity.

Politics is politics and the question arises: Is this not an attempt to hide their real support for a
different candidate?

It is widely understood that the US would like a military figure as the future president. It has been mentioned that they support General Prabowo for the position.
It would be typical to cover up their real intentions and launch the Sri Mulyani candidacy as a test balloon to measure
the political response.

In reply to the question why foreign governments, especially the US government, would meddle in the presidential election process, Mr Sayidiman referred to the relevant analysis outlined in his book "Rakyat Sejahtera, Negara Kuat".




 Mr Sayidiman , citing his views as outlined in his book :
"Rakyat Sejahtera, Negara Kuat".

stated that this political scenario should be seen in the context of the US ambition in Asia where China has
appeared as a global power threatening their hegemony.
The US does not want to lose Indonesia.



"The US does not want to lose Indonesia and will do all they can to maintain control over our country."

This should be seen in the context of the US ambitions in Asia where China has appeared as a global power threatening US interests. The rise of China as an economic power represent very strong international dynamics.
The development of China, particularly their industry, triggers the requirement for a tremendous need for energy supplies. China has already approached the different suppliers of the world.

It is in the interest of the US to maintain control over Southeast Asia as part of their ambition to preserve world hegemony.

At this time it is their main priority to keep close relations with countries with a Moslem majority and keep their orientation directed to the US. This will only be possible if the government leadership of those countries is in the hands of US oriented persons, are US allies.

In the current global constellation where China's political and economic power is threatening the US position, Indonesia with its strategic geographical location is considered of great importance.

The three main factors impacting the US strategy towards China are:

1. "Freedom of movement", free control over the use of strategic waters
2. "Energy resouces", considering the escalating requirements of China's industry

3. The precair Food resources situation in the face of growing "Scarcity of Food" prospects as a result of the rapid world population growth.

Why would they support Sri Mulyani?
Considering her background experience in the IMF and Worldbank they hope to be able to play a role in control of Indonesia's economic and political development.

However, Mr Saydiman expressed his doubts on whether Sri Mulyani can win the necessary support from the Indonesian people. This factor has undoubtedly been taking into account by the foreign governments. The US and Australia most certainly must have expected that their approach towards the PPAD could not remain secret and would not be welcomed in Indonesian political circles.

This gives rise to the question: "Was this just a "camoufllage attempt", a strategy to "cover-up" their real intents, their real support for a future president meeting their requirements for a friendly and capable ally"

This is a real probability that should not be neglected, Mr Saydiman stated in reply to the question.



Foreign involvement in CETRO
Mr. Sayidiman mentioned another matter troubling him, i.e. the happenings around CETRO (Centre for Electoral Reform)
CETRO was formed on 3 September 1999 for legislative reform of the electoral system promoting honest and fair elections, and consitutional reform. It is sponsored by the National Democratic Institute, an institution which has close ties to the Democratic Party of the USA.

Why should there be foreign participation in the discussions on electoral and constitutional reforms? he asked.
This is a domestic matter that does not require any foreign aid, assistance involvement or interference.
Reformation allows amendmends to the 1945 Constituion, which then will no longer be the 1945 Constitution.

The big question is : Why should foreign institutions fund and atttend those electoral reform and constitutional amendmend meetings?
Until 3 September 2009 approx. Rp 45 billion has been spent with financial assistance from UNDP, US AID, NDI and the British Embassy. What is their role in the Indonesian electorate system reform??

2014 Presidential Election.
As ex soldiers and members of the Army, we retirees affiliated to the PPAD, continue to follow the developments and share the desire to improve the nation's condition. I still support President SB Yudhoyono and hope that he will succeed
in his efforts, he is our elected President. But I am afraid that between now and 2014 the threat exists of a decline in and gradually worsening of the nation's conditions.

PPAD members actively continue to evaluate prospective candidates to be entrusted the task of improving national conditions, focusing on the fact that development of a strong nation is based on the prosperity of their people.
Pancasila should truly be the basic principle of the country.

The future President has to have the leadership potential to guide the country towards more orderly conditions, with
proper attention for the welfare of the people, the ability to correct existing negative conditions hampering development
to prevent a collapse of our development efforts.
In view of the vastness of our country the President cannot carry out these duties alone but has to be supported by a
team of capable co-workers and assistants.

Has PPAD already selected their 2014 Presidential candidate?
Not yet, still under evaluation, Mr Sayidiman stated,





Lt General (Ret.) Sayidiman Suryohadiprojo
31 July 2011

Diplomat Amerika dan Australia mencari dukungan PPAD untuk Sri Muljani sebagai Presiden.
31 Juli 2011

Menjelang pemilihan Presiden 2014 wakil negara asing telah mendekati PPAD (Persatuan Purnawirawan Angkatan Darat) untuk mendukung pencalonan Sri Mulyani Indrawati presiden pada pemilu tahun 2014.
Ketua Persatuan Purnawirawan TNI AD (PPAD) Letjen Purn Soeryadi menyatakan bahwa perwakilan negara asing itu mendekati sejumlah purnawirawan TNI AD melalui diskusi tentang kondisi politik nasional. Mereka diberitakan mencari dukungan Sri Mulyani sebagai capres pada Pemilu 2014. Namun, purnawirawan TNI AD tidak menyikapi secara kelembagaan.



Dalam wawancara dengan dengan LetJen TNI (Purn) Sayidiman Suryohadiprojo , mantan Gubernur Lemhannnas (1974), terakhir Penasehat Presiden Habibie urusan ketahanan nasional, beliau membenarkan berita ini. " Karena ingin mengetahui kebenaran tidaknya saya langsung menghubungi Letnan Jenderal TNI (Purn), Kiki Sjahnakri, (Ketua Badan Pengkajian PPAD) yang mengkonfirmasikan kebenaran berita ini. Rupa2nya diplomat Amerika Serikat menghubungi LetJen Kiki Sjahnakri sementara diplomat Australia menghubungi sejumlah anggauta senior PPAD .
"Ini merupakan suatu intervensi",
demikian ujar Bapak Sajidiman.
Pertanyaan mengapa fihak asing, terutama Amerika Serikat, ingin turut campur dalam proses pemilihan presiden dijawab dengan menunjuk ke analysis dalam buku yang ditulis olehnya tahun 2007 "Rakyat Sejahtera Negara Kuat".

Perkembangan ini harus dilihat dalam rangka ambisi AS di Asia dan munculnya China sebagai suatu kekuatan global yang mengancam kepentingan mereka. Perkembangan China sebagai kekuatan ekonomi merupakan sumber dynamika internasional yang kuat sekali. Perkembangan ekonomi China, khususnya industri, mengakibatkan keperluan energi yang tinggi. Untuk itu sudah tampak usaha China mendekati pemasok minyak di seluruh dunia.
Amerika sangat berkepentingan memperoleh kontrol atas Asia Tenggara bagi perebutan hegemoni dunia. Kepentingan AS sekarang adalah agar negara-negara berpenduduk mayoritas Islam sebanyak mungkin berorientasi kepada AS. Itu hanya mungkin kalau pemerintah negara-negara itu dipegang orang-orang yang berkiblat pada AS. AS selalu berusaha mempengaruhi perkembangan politik untuk menjadikan Indonesia berkiblat atau sekurang-kurangnya sangat dekat pada dirinya.
Dalam konstellasi global saat ini dimana kekuatan politik dan ekonomi China tak dapat disingkirkan, Indonesia dengan posisi geografi yang strategis di anggap sangat penting.
Tiga faktor utama yang mempengaruhi strategi AS adalah pengamanan kepentingan mereka menghadapi China sbb: :


"Freedom of movement", pemakaian bebas perairan strategis


Sumber energi (energy resources) mengingat kebutuhan industri China yang menanjak.


Sumber pangan (food resources) makin "precair", menghadapi prospek "Scarcity of food" dengan pesatnya pertumbuhan penduduk



Mengapa AS mencari dukungan untuk Sri Mulyani? Dengan latar belakang pekerjaan di IMF dan Worldbankdi Amerika Serikat niscaya mereka mengharapkan dapat berperan dalam mengontrol pembangunan Indonesia.
Tetapi LetJen Sayidiman meragukan apakah Sri Mulyani akan berhasil mendapat dukungan cukup dari masyarakat Indonesia.
Hal ini pasti juga sudah diperhitungkan oleh fihak asing. Amerika dan Australia niscaya faham bahwa pendekatan mereka ke fihak PPAD tidak dapat dirahasiakandan tidak akan disambut baik dikalangan dunia politik Indonesia, di anggap sebagai intervensi dalam politik dalam negeri.
Timbul pertanyaan apakah usaha pendekatan fihak America dan Australia ini hanya merupakan suatu strategi "camouflage" atau "cover-up" untuk menutup kegiatan lain, yakni secara diam2 mendukung seorang calon lain yang memenuhi kriteria kepentingan mereka seperti disebut diatas. Kemungkinan ini pasti ada, ujar Bapak Sayidiman atas pertanyaan.

Bapak Sayidiman juga melihat peran Cetro yang disponsori oleh NDI (National Democratic Institute) satu lembaga
yang erat dengan Partai Demokrat di AS, dalam perkembangan politik ini. Cetro (Center for electoral reform ) yang didirikan 9 september 1999 maksudnya mengolah reformasi sistem pemilihan dan UUD 1945.
Harus dipertanyakan mengapa fihak asing menghadiri pembahasan2 electoral reform yang bersangkutan dan membiayai usaha ini.
Hinggga 3 September 2000 biaya yang dikeluarkan mencapai kl. Rp4.5 milliard dengan bantuan biaya dari UNDP, US Aid, NDI (faction Madelein Allbright) dan British Embassy, demikian dikatakan Bapak Sayidiman.

Mengapa fihak luar negeri berpartisipasi dalam pembahasan amandemen UUD 1945 dan reformasi sistem pemilihan? Bukankah ini merupakan urusan dalam negeri yang tidak memerlukan bantuan/turut campur fihak asing? Reformasi memungkinkan UUD 45 di amandemen sehingga bukan UUD 1945 lagi.
Sebagai bekas pejoang dan anggauta Angkatan Darat para Purnawiran yang tergabung dalam PPAD tetap mengikuti perkembangan dan ingin perbaikan kondisi negara kita. Saya tetap mendukung Presiden SBY dan harap dia berhasil, beliau adalah Presiden terpilih. Tetapi saya khawatir bahwa antara sekarang dan 2014 ada bahaya kondisi negara akan mundur (decline), makin tidak teratur.
Purnawiran AD turut memikirkan calon yang baik untuk menghadapi perbaikan kondisi negara dengan mengingat bahwa jika rakyat sejahtera, negara akan kuat. Hendaknya Pancasila betul2 dijadikan sebagai dasar negara.
Calon Presiden 2014 harus ada potensi kepemimpinan, sanggup membawa Indonesia kearah yang lebih teratur, mempedulikan kesejahteraan rakyat, memperbaiki kekurangan yang masih menghambat, jangan sampai usaha pembangunan mengalami kegagalan,
Karena Indonesia suatu negara besar tugas Presiden tidak dapat dijalankan sendiri tetapi harus didukung oleh team kawan-kawan yang kapabel.

Apakah PPAD sudah memilih calon Presiden 2014?
"Belum, masih dalam pembahasan", kata Bapak Sayidiman.




Prabowo ranked highest as presidential candidate
Wed, October 26 2011

Jakarta (ANTARA News) - Prabowo Subianto, chairman of the Advisory Board of the Great Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra), is ranked the highest as a presidential candidate, according to survey results released here on Wednesday.

The results of the survey by the Soegeng Sarjadi Syndicate from October 3-8, 2011 in 33 provinces in the country involving 1,318 respondents showed 28 percent of respondents chose Prabowo as presidential candidate while 10.6 percent chose Constitutional Court chairman Mahfud MD.

Other candidates included former economic minister Sri Mulyani (7.4 percent), Golkar Party chairman Aburizal Bakrie (6.8 percent), Nahdlatul Ulama Islamic organization chief Said Akil Siradj (6.0 percent), Muhammadiyah Islamic leader Din Syamsuddin (5.2 percent), army chief of staff General Pramono Edhie Wibowo (4.2 percent), former vice president Jusuf Kalla (4.0 percent), chief security minister Djoko Suyanto (3.2 percent), chief economic minister Hatta Rajasa (2.8 percent) and businessman Surya Paloh (2.5 percent).

Soegeng Saryadi Syndicate executive director Toto Sugiarto said most respondents had chosen a military figure to be the country`s next president because they missed a strict leader and therefore 65 percent had chosen Prabwowo.
"33.8 percent of respondents still believe a military figure is fit to be elected president in 2014," he said.

Second in the ranking was an academic collecting 17.2 votes, followed by religious figure (12.1 percent), businessman (9.7 percent) and political party figure (8.9 percent).

The results of the survey done based on a stratified random sampling indicated that the military-civilian dichotomy has not yet completely vanished.
The choice of a military figure correlates with public desire for the government to focus on corruption eradication.
A total of 40.5 percent of respondents urged the government to immediately settle the corruption and bribery problems.

Other problems needing urgent settlements were poverty according to 29.8 percent of respondents, unemployment (16 percent), mafia operations in all sectors (10.4 percent) and sovereignty (3.1 percent).
About a vice president, most respondents choose an honest and smart person. The two qualities were represented in Constitutional Court figure Mahfud MD who won 15.6 percent of votes.

Following him were Sri Mulyani Indrawati (8.0 percent), Pramono Edhie Wibowo (7.1 percent), Din Syamsuddin (6.8 percent), KH Said Aqil Siradj (6.3 percent), Djoko Suyanto (3.9 percent) and Puan Maharani, the daughter of former president Megawati Soekarnoputri (3.0 percent).
Earlier, the Reform Institute issued survey results showing Aburizal Bakrie to be the most popular figure as a candidate for the 2014 presidential elections. He obtained 13.58 percent votes of 2,010 respondents involved in the survey.

In the survey Prabowo Subianto was ranked second with 8.46 percent of the votes.

Editor: Priyambodo RH


Prabowo dan Mahfud Capres Terfavorit
Penulis : Donny Andhika AM
Rabu, 26 Oktober 2011 13:09 WIB
JAKARTA--MICOM: Popularitas Ketua Dewan Pembina Partai Gerindra Prabowo Subianto dan Ketua Mahkamah Kontitusi Mahfud MD paling banyak mendapat dukungan publik sebagai calon Presiden 2014.

Paling tidak hal tersebut tergambar dalam hasil survei Soegeng Sarjadi Syndicate (SSS) yang dirilis di Jakarta, Rabu (26/10).
Sebanyak 28% masyarakat memilih Prabowo sebagai calon Presiden mendatang. Sedangkan Mahfud mendapatkan angka 10,6%. Survei itu dilakukan pada periode 3-8 Oktober 2011 dengan menggunakan metode stratified random sampling terhadap 1.318 orang responden di 33 provinsi di Indonesia.

Selain Prabowo dan Mahfud, beberapa calon lainnya yang dipilih masyarakat, yakni Sri Mulyani (7,4%), Aburizal Bakrie (6,8%), Said Akil Siradj (6%), Din Syamsuddin (5,2%), Pramono Edhie Wibowo (4,2 %), Jusuf Kalla (4,0%), Djoko Suyanto (3,2%), Hatta Rajasa (2,8 %), dan Surya Paloh (2,5%).

Peneliti SSS, Ari Nurcahyo mengatakan alasan responden memilih Prabowo sebagai capres adalah karena beberapa faktor.
Ia memaparkan sebanyak 66,5% masyarakat memilih Prabowo karena ketegasannya, dan 19,9% memandang Prabowo memiliki kewibawaan yang cukup sebagai calon Presiden.
Sementara itu, Mahfud dipilih karena kejujurannya sebesar 37%, kepandaian 22,8%, dan ketegasan 21,7%.
"Jadi, dari data tersebut tampak masyarakat sekarang ini cenderung rindu akan ketegasan. Boleh jadi ini merupakan bandul yang bergerak diametral karena publik menilai karakter kepemimpinan Presiden Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono yang peragu," ujar Ari.

Menurut pengamat politik J Kristiadi, kombinasi kedua nama tersebut akan menciptakan keseimbangan yang baik.
"Sosok tegas itu akan dibutuhkan untuk membawa bangsa ini ke arah mana. Dan dengan nama Mahfud MD di bawahnya, itu akan menjadikan keseimbangan yang cukup baik bagi karakter pemimpin yang tegas dari militer," kata Kristiadi. (*/OL-12)




With no SBY or Mega, Prabowo to face Ical

Tifa Asrianti, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta | Mon, 10/31/2011 1

The 2104 presidential election will likely see a duel between general-turned-businessman Prabowo Subianto and Golkar Party chairman and business tycoon Aburizal “Ical” Bakrie, according to political observers.
During its leadership meeting last week, Golkar, pegged to come out on top in the 2014 legislative elections, has nominated Aburizal as its presidential candidate for the upcoming election, while Prabowo has long since expressed his ambitions to join the race after failing in 2009.

A series of recent surveys and expert analyses have confirmed that without incumbent President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and former president Megawati Soekarnoputri, chairwoman of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) in the race, the presidency would likely come down to Aburizal and Prabowo.
Under the Constitution, Yudho-yono can’t run for a third presidential term, while Megawati is facing mounting pressure within and outside her party to pick a younger candidate to represent the party in 2014.

Of three recent surveys about the presidential candidates by three different poll bodies, one put Aburizal in the strongest position, while two others placed Prabowo as the likely winner if both Yudhoyono and Megawati did not run.
A survey by the Reform Institute pegged Aburizal as the early favorite with 13.58 percent, followed by Prabowo Subianto with 8.46 percent, Jusuf Kalla with 7.06 percent, Hidayat Nurwahid with 5.17 percent and First Lady Ani Yudhoyono with 4.13 percent.
A poll by Soegeng Sarjadi Syndicate said that without Yudhoyono and Megawati in the running, Prabowo would be the top vote-getter with 28 percent, followed by Mahfud M.D. with 10.6 percent, Sri Mulyani Indrawati with 7.4 percent and Aburizal Bakrie with 6.8 percent.

An Indonesian Voice Network (JSI) survey conducted from Oct. 10–15 included Megawati, who was most favored by 19.6 percent of respondents. She was followed by Prabowo with 10.8 percent, Aburizal with 8.9 percent and Wiranto with 7.3 percent.
However, experts have agreed that although Aburizal has the Golkar political machine and strong financial resources behind him, he faces a number of stumbling blocks.

A University of Indonesia political analyst said the three polls showed that voters still wanted a president from Java, while many still preferred soldiers over entrepreneurs.
“Aburizal needs to conduct a thorough analysis of whether the people will vote for the party or for him specifically, because in 2004, the Golkar Party won the legislative election but lost the presidential election,” he said.
Political observer Andrinof Chaniago said Aburizal had a small chance at winning, saying the more likely candidates to watch were familiar faces such as Megawati, Prabowo and Wiranto.
“People need to believe that the candidate can deliver their hopes. After that, there are other factors such as [ethnic background] and religious background,” he said.

Andrinof added that even if the Golkar Party teamed up with the Democratic Party for support, Aburizal would still face difficulties breaking into the top five, because the candidate’s character would still play important role in the election.
Some have speculated that the President may order his Democratic Party to team up with Golkar, allowing First Lady Ani to be Aburizal’s vice president.

Another political analyst, Yunarto Wijaya, said Aburizal had his flaws to address, including the Lapindo mud case and tax mafia allegations.
“People already know Prabowo from the 2009 election, and his party has a pro-poor policy similar to the PDI-P.
If Mega does not join the election, the votes for her might go to Prabowo. Even if Mega’s daughter, Puan Maharani, runs,
she has yet to attract voters like her mother,” he said.





Megawati Soekarnoputri and Prabowo Subianto
(Antara/ Widodo S Jusuf)

Surveys Name Three Presidential Candidates
"Megawati, Prabowo, and Aburizal are the three strongest candidates"

27 October 2011,

VIVAnews - Three research institutes have released surveys on the electability of party and presidential candidates. All three revealed a number of figures who are considered the most popular to participate in the 2014 general elections.

Reform Institute, which conducted the survey between September 12 to 24, 2011, found that if Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and Megawati Sukarnoputri are excluded, General Chairman of Golkar Party Aburizal Bakrie tops the list with 13.58 percent of votes. Prabowo Subianto follows with 8.46 percent, Jusuf Kalla 7.06 percent, Hidayat Nurwahid 5.17 percent, and Ani Yudhoyono 4.13 percent.

Soegeng Sarjadi Syndicate (SSS) which held the surveys on October 3-8, 2011, stated, if Yudhoyono and Megawati are not involved, Prabowo would garner most of the votes, by 28 percent of the respondents. Coming next are Mahfud MD with 10.6 percent, Sri Mulyani Indrawati 7.4 percent, Aburizal Bakrie 6.8 percent, KH Said Aqil Siradj 6 percent, Din Syamsuddin 5.2 percent, Pramono Edhie Wibowo 4.2 percent, Jusuf Kalla 4.0 percent and a dozen other names pocketing below 4 percent.

SSS also conducted a special survey on vice presidential candidates. Mahfud MD is the figure for whom respondents would vote, amounting to 15.6 percent. After him are Sri Mulyani with 8 percent, Pramono Edhie Wibowo 7.1 percent, Din Syamsuddin 6.8 percent, Said Aqil Siradj and Djoko Suyanto each 3.9 percent, and Puan Maharani 3 percent.

A different name list was resulted by Indonesia Vote Network (JSI), which surveyed on October 10 to 15, 2011. Being included in this survey, Megawati was selected as a presidential candidate with the highest support, which is 19.6 percent. Other presidential candidates whom the general public prefer after Megawati are, successively, Prabowo Subianto (10.8 percent), Aburizal Bakrie (8.9 percent), Wiranto (7.3 percent), Sri Sultan Hamengkubuwono X (6.5 percent) , Hidayat Nur Wahid (3.8 percent), Surya Paloh (2.3 percent), Sri Mulyani (2 percent), Ani Yudhoyono (1.6 percent), Hatta Rajasa (1.6 percent), Anas Urbaningrum (1, 5 percent), Sutanto (0.2 percent), and Djoko Suyanto (0.2 percent).

"Megawati, Prabowo, and Aburizal are the three strongest candidates," said Widdi Aswindi, JSI Executive Director.
• VIVAnews



Indonesian presidential election, 2014
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The next Indonesian presidential election will be held in 2014. It will be Indonesia's third direct presidential election, and will elect a president for a five year term. Incumbent President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono is constitutionally barred from seeking third term in the election.


Possible Candidates


Sri Mulyani Indrawati, Managing Director of World Bank Group, former Minister of Finance[5]


Anas Urbaningrum, chairman of Democratic Party[6]


Prabowo Subianto, former Army Strategic and Reserve (KOSTRAD) commander and 2009 vice presidential candidate [7]


Aburizal Bakrie, chairman of Golkar Party [8]


Hatta Rajasa, Coordinating Minister for Economy [9]


Mahfud MD, Chairman of Indonesian Constitutional Court [10]


Wiranto, former Indonesian Armed Forces commander and 2004 presidential candidate, 2009 vice presidential candidate[11]


Megawati Soekarnoputri, former president [12]


Jusuf Kalla, former Vice President [13]


Sutiyoso, former Governor of Jakarta [14]


Pramono Edhie Wibowo, Army Chief of Staff [15]


Sri Mulyani is one of the potential candidates to replace Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono.

Indonesian former Finance Minister and currently as a Managing Director of World Bank is one of the potential candidates to be Indonesian next President to replace Indonesian currently President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono in the next Indonesian Presidential ballot election in 2014.

Scramble hot seat topnotch people still four years away. But who replaces SBY decent figure as head of government plus the Head of State would appear early on.

Former finance minister’s possible candidacy
could set the stage for an epic political battle

Starting from the presence site, Sri Mulyani be one figure who championed the stock will enter the presidential candidate of 2014. Managing Director at the World Bank is called will compete fortune that had won public sympathy because of slack

Century bank scandal allegations.

Director of Civil Circle for Indonesia (LIMA), Ahmad Fauzi - usually called Ray Rangkuti - call, Sri Mulyani opportunity to run for presidency in 2014 somewhat large. "She's that pitted, she's bigger opportunities," said Ray Rangkuti at the Parliament building, Jakarta, Friday (10/01/2010).

Sri Mulyani for Indonesia's President?
Thursday, August 4, 2011

Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, facing trouble from corruption allegations in his Democrat Party, faces difficulty on another flank with the announcement Wednesday that a new political party has been registered in the name of Sri Mulyani Indrawati, his former finance minister, for the 2014 Presidential campaign.
If, as expected, she does run, her candidacy would set up a crystal-clear contrast with what appears to be endemic corruption among leaders of the Democrats, which has embarrassed Yudhoyono and driven down his popularity ratings over the past three months. It would set up an even bigger confrontation – and contrast – with Aburizal Bakrie, one of Indonesia’s richest tycoons and a man who has made no secret of his ambition to run for the presidency himself.

Before her departure from the government in May 2010, Sri Mulyani was considered representative of a new Indonesia that sought to break away from decades of corruption and governmental patrimony. Her reforms have been given widespread credit for Indonesia’s economic turnaround. Bakrie, by contrast, heads Golkar, the political party set up by the late strongman Suharto and which has been regarded mostly as a vehicle to allow top members to avail themselves of government patronage.

Sri Mulyani left Yudhoyono’s cabinet after an epic series of confrontations in which she refused to bail out Bakrie’s coal interests with government funds after the Indonesian stock market collapsed at the onset of the global financial crisis. She also insisted on investigating Bakrie’s interests on tax fraud charges involving tens of millions of dollars, and refused to agree that a huge gas well blowout caused by a Bakrie subsidiary was a natural disaster. The mud flow from the blowout has inundated 12 villages of East Java and driven 40,000 people from their homes.
After her departure for the World Bank, where she was named as one of three governors, overseeing the bank’s activities in 74 countries in Latin America, the Asia Pacific, Middle East and North Africa, all of the cases against Bakrie were shelved. In an interview with the Wall Street Journal, she blamed the tycoon for her departure from the government.

The new party, to be named as the Independent People’s Union – conveniently known by its Indonesian-language initials SRI, was officially registered with the Justice and Human Rights Ministry on Wednesday. Damianus Taufan, the new party’s chairman, told reporters the party officials have not approached Sri Mulyani to see if she wants the job. However, rumors have been circulating for months in Jakarta that the former finance minister, who will be 49 on Aug. 26, would like to return to take on the country’s vast corruption and particularly Bakrie.
Despite her personal popularity, a handful of reformers in Jakarta is going to need an awful lot of help to get the word to places where traditionally campaigning consists of handing out money in return for votes. But it takes considerable party machinery throughout a sprawling nation that famously covers nearly 13,500 islands and is comprised of 33 provinces, ranging from relatively cosmopolitan Jakarta to places – admittedly not too many anymore -- where people still wear penis gourds.

Taufan, however, told reporters he is optimistic about the party’s registration, saying it already has 2,000 members and the required representation in all 33 provinces. But the odds that Sri Mulyani will top the presidential polls in 2014 are probably long unless she can forge a coalition with other parties.
Although they haven’t specifically asked her to head the party, Taufan told reporters, “she knows about our activities and the establishment of the party,” he said. “Hopefully, when she finishes her contract with the World Bank, she will join us.”

Several public figures attended the registration event, including Arbi Sanit, a political analyst from the University of Indonesia; Fikri Jufri, a veteran journalist; Todung Mulya Lubis, a prominent human rights lawyer; and Rocky Gerung, a University of Indonesia philosophy lecturer, all of whom have been tied to reform efforts.
That stands in sharp difference to Yudhoyono’s Democrat Party, which stands in serious danger of being wrecked by allegations of corruption and infighting. Political analysts in Jakarta have called the current scandal the worst of the president’s political career. The party’s fugitive former treasurer is outside the country, continuing to level increasingly credible and detailed charges of corruption over the construction of an athlete’s village facilities for the Southeast Asian Games, to be hosted by Indonesia in the South Sumatra province of Palembang in November.

Although there have been calls by party leaders to get the fugitive, Mohammad Nazaruddin, to come home, there is widespread suspicion in Jakarta that they would prefer that he keep going. His sudden departure in May, a day before he was due to be banned from travel for allegedly accepting US$3 million in bribes over the construction, raised questions whether he was being helped out of the country by party officials.
Despite efforts to shut him up, Nazaruddin has delivered continuing allegations that seemingly grow more explicit with each new revelation, particularly that the party chairman, Anas Urbangingrum, and others were implicated in the bribery scandal, and that the party chairman had engaged in vote-buying. Other party officials have been named in the scandal as well.

Yudhoyono was elected as a reformer in his first term in office, a reputation that burnished considerably by Sri Mulyani’s efforts to clean up the government. That reputation has been tarnished time and again, partly because of the Bakrie episode with Sri Mulyani and now with the athletes’; village scandal, which is being shown repeatedly on the country’s television stations – including interviews with Nazaruddin, who appears relatively easy to find by reporters, but not by the National Police.

An opinion poll by the Indonesia Survey Circle showed the president’s approval rating, reported as high as 90 percent when he was reelected, had fallen from 56.7 percent at the end of 2010 to 47.2 percent in June.
Thus the SRI party, on its face, should stand in vivid contrast to the established parties. Sri Mulyani’s performance as finance minister and her reputation for incorruptibility should be a major selling point. She was given credit for driving up foreign direct investment from US$4.6 billion to US$8.9 billion in a single year. She set out to clean out the notoriously corrupt tax and customs department – not always with success, given the Bakrie interests’ achievement in thwarting her efforts. Asia Sentinel



15 New Parties Register For 2014
Fifteen new political parties registered for the 2014 general elections ahead of the deadline on Monday night, an official said.
Ronna Nirmala | 12:37 AM August 23, 2011

Fifteen new political parties registered for the 2014 general elections ahead of the deadline on Monday night, an official said.
Sucipto, a spokesman for the Justice and Human Rights Ministry, said the registration closed on Monday at 11:59 p.m.
The Pancasila Democracy Party was the last to register at about 9 p.m. One party that had already registered with the ministry, the Indonesian Nation Sovereignty Party, withdrew its name on Monday without explanation.

Also on Monday, representatives of the Independent People’s Union Party (SRI) submitted some paperwork to complete the registration process it started on Aug. 3. SRI has earned a lot of media coverage for a party its size because of its stated intention to nominate Sri Mulyani Indrawati, the former finance minister and World Bank managing director, as its presidential candidate for 2014.

Achmad Gelora, a ministry official, said the National Republic Party (Nasrep), founded by Hutomo “Tommy” Mandala Putra Suharto, the youngest son of the late President Suharto, also registered for the elections.

Other parties of note to register were the National Democratic Party, linked to Golkar executive Surya Paloh, and the United National Party (PPN), founded by the heads of 12 political parties that failed to win seats in the House of Representatives in the 2009 elections.
The Insulinde National Prosperity Party (Partai Kemakmuran Bangsa Nusantara or PKBN), founded by Yenny Wahid, the daughter of the late former President Abdurrahman “Gus Dur” Wahid, appears to be the new name for the faction of the National Awakening Party (PKB) that she has headed for some time.

Yenny said the PKBN had not officially decided on a presidential candidate. She added, however, that “if most of my supporters agree, then Mahfud will be the PKBN’s sole candidate for the presidency.” She was referring to Constitutional Court chairman Muhammad Mahfud.

Other new parties include the Satria Piningit Party (Chosen Knight Party), the Republican Works Party (PAKAR), the Republican Struggle Party, the Independent Party, the One Republic Party, the Indonesian People’s Force Party, the Thoriqot Islam Party and the
Awakening Great Indonesia Party. The 74 existing registered parties did not need to reregister, but will be subject to verification, Sucipto said.
Achmad said verification would start this week and continue until Sept. 22. The names of the parties that passed the verification would be announced about three weeks after that, he said.

Meanwhile, Apung Widadi, a researcher at Indonesia Corruption Watch, said none of the nine parties at the House had submitted their financial statement for an audit by the BPK, the state audit agency.


Indonesia Driven by Politics of the Past
Contributed by James Van Zorge
Friday, 19 June 2009
The candidates for president all echo the Suharto era
When I think about how to describe the current crop of Indonesian presidential hopefuls, I have a vision of the past. All
three contenders for president in the polls to be held July 8 are, in their own way, creatures of Indonesia's past. Just a
decade into the reform period, the major political figures in this country all came into prominence during the Suharto era.

Vice President Jusuf Kalla is a classic Suharto-esque businessman; Megawati Sukarnoputri is a woman longing for a
return to the glory days of her father and the incumbent, President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, a general under
Suharto, is a transitional liberal willing to break with the past but uncertain how to do so decisively.
Golkar standard-bearer and Vice President Jusuf Kalla belongs to a class of businessmen who seem to view politics as a
branch of the family business. Under Suharto, there was nothing wrong with growing one's business while supposedly
serving the public. In this rarefied Manichaean world, monopolies can be a good thing and competition from outside the
club is treated with contempt. This is a conservative world where the tenets of democracy might be tolerated but it is
hardly a place of liberal values and policies.

For businessmen who thrived under the Suharto regime, growing an empire was predicated upon the grace of the
president and his family. Rent-seeking, not competition and open markets, was the magical key for building wealth. In the
United States during the 19th century these kind of figures were called robber barons for good reason.
It is small wonder that Kalla and his cohorts wax eloquently about the Suharto years. More than once Kalla has voiced
his opinion that democracy has gone too far in Indonesia. I worry that if he were to have his way, he would more than
likely dismantle anticorruption agencies, place a muzzle on the media and clamp down on civil and human rights activists.

Given his personal history and values, it is no coincidence that Kalla has chosen retired Gen. (ret.) Wiranto as his
running mate. At a young age, Wiranto was taken under Suharto's wing and served faithfully as the president's adjutant.
In the eyes of Suharto and his children, Wiranto would have made a perfect successor, mostly because he could be
trusted to protect the family's interests and keep the clan firmly in power.

If you think I am exaggerating, consider this: By virtue of where they sit, crony businessmen think of democracy as an
intrusion, an unnecessary import from the Western world and, given the potential stakes, which is the dissolution of an
old order they came to thrive upon, something to be inherently feared. In the words of a famous liberal US Supreme
Court justice, Louis Brandeis: "We can have democracy in this country or we can have great wealth concentrated in the
hands of the few, but we cannot have both."

Former President Megawati Sukarnoputri, in contrast to Kalla, is far from being an avaricious industrialist. Neither does
she dream of returning Indonesia to its Suharto-run past. But for sure, she is thinking deeply about another past —
her father's.

When I first met Megawati in 1997, I asked her about any plans she might have for a political future and what she might
consider as a strategy to reach higher office. Our ensuing conversation, with her eyes swelling in pride whenever I raised
the name of Indonesia's founding leader, Sukarno, was most telling: "Of course I will one day be the president. I often
have conversations with my father about that. But as far as a strategy, you Westerners don't seem to understand. I have
no need for a strategy. Instead, I rely upon something else: Factor X."




Pemilihan Presiden Langsung

Fuad Bawazier
(Ang. Panitia Ad Hoc I MPR, Mantan Menteri keuangan)

Sejenak berakhirnya kekuasaan pemerintahan Presiden Soeharto, perubahan-perubahan politik dinegeri ini berlangsung dengan sangat pesat. Regulasi politik banyak dinilai telah menghambat kehidupan politik yang sehat, satu persatu mulai dicabut. Konsep dan praktek kehidupan bernegara yang dahulu diidealisasikan atau bahkan disakralkan, kini di gugat dan mulai kehilangan validitas serta relevansinya.

Masyarakat negara ini baik yang terikat dalam struktur formal organisasi negara maupun yang tidak memang tengah sibuk untuk mengkaji ulang aturan-aturan lama dan berusaha memformat kembali suatu aturan baru dalam rangka menciptakan sebuah sistem baru sebagai koreksi atas sistem lama yang dinilai telah gagal dalam merespon dinamika perkembangan dan kemajuan masyarakat serta semangat kehidupan negara yang demokratis.
Dalam hubungan ini ketika pembahasan perubahan UUD ’45 tengah berlangsung di MPR melalui badan pekerjanya,salah satu wancana yang mengemuka dan mendapat perhatian lebih adalah gagasan untuk melakukan amandemen terhadap pasal 6 ayat (2). Pemilihan presiden yang dilakukan oleh MPR hendak dirubah menjadi pemilihan langsung oleh rakyat sebagai bagian yang integral dari gagasan untuk membangun sistem baru yang demokratis tadi.

Pemilihan presiden menurut UUD ’45
Dalam prespektif historis, membincangkan masalah pemilihan presiden, di awali pada masa pembahasan rancangan UUD ’45 dalam Panitia Persiapan Kemerdekaan Indonesia (PPKI). Pilihan sebutan presiden sebagai pemimpin negara diakibatkan oleh keberhasilan anggota Badan Penyelidik Usaha Persiapan Kemerdekaan Indonesia (BPUPKI) menetapkan bentuk negara bagi indonesia merdeka yang menolak bentuk negara kerajaan dan bentuk lain kecuali republik.

Dengan jumlah suara 55 bagi bentuk republik berbanding 6 yang memiliki kerajaan, 2 suara memilih bentuk negara lain dan 1 abstain (Yamin, 1959), terlihat jelas dominasi kehendak pendiri negara kepada model negara dimana kedudukan rakyat diletakkan pada posisi yang berhak menentukan kehendak negara (government by the people).
Kata republik ssendiri adalah istilah yang dipakai plato untuk menyebut representative democracy dimana rakyat sesungguhnya tidak menentukan hukum atau menjalankan pemerintahan (secara langsung) tetapi memilih orang lain untuk melakukannya guna membedakannya dengan pengertian pure democracy yang dipraktekkannya dalam pemerintahan city state di Yunani dahulu (Burns, 1989). Salah satu konsekuensi lebih lanjut dari pilihan bentuk negara ini kemudian dituangkan dalam pasal 1 ayat (2) yang menyebutkan ‘kedaulatan adalah ditangan rakyat dan dilakukan sepenuhnya oleh MPR’.

Tentu yang menjadi pertanyaan adalah mengapa pemilihan presiden dan wakil presiden dilakukan olehn MPR tidak dilakukan langsung oleh rakyat? Untuk menjawab pertanyaan ini perlu dipahami dahulu kedudukan dan peranan MPR dalam UUD ’45 dan hubungan nya dengan jabatan presiden.

Dalam hubungan pasal 1 ayat (2) diatas, Soepomo memberikan penjelasannya pada Rapat Besar Sidang Pertama Panitia Persiapan Kemerdekaan Indonesia (PPKI) tanggal 18 Agustus 1945 bahwa, (Bahar, 1995).
“Kedaulatan negara ada di tangan rakyat; sebagai penjelmaan rakyat, dalam suatu badan yang dinamakan disini: Majelis Permusyawaratan Rakyat. Jadi Majelis Permusyawaratan Rakyat adalah suatu badan negara yang memegang kedaulatan rakyat, ialah suatu badan yang paling tinggi, yang tidak terbatas kekuasaannya”.

Dari penjelasan itu, UUD ’45 dengan demikian, menempatkan MPR sebagai konkritisasi dari rakyat yang berdaulat. Oleh karena rakyat pemegang kedaulatan atau kekuasaan tertinggi dalam negara, maka konsekuensinya sebagai badan penjelmaan kedaulatan rakyat tadi, MPR memiliki kekuasaan yang tidak terbatas. Ini ditegaskan lagi dalam penjelasan UUD ’45 yang menyebutkan MPR merupakan pemegang kekuasaan negara yang tertinggi.
Dengan kedudukan demikian, MPR dibebani tugas menetapkan Undang-undang Dasar dan menetapkan garis-garis besar haluan negara, seperti yang disebutkan dalam pasal 3 UUD ’45. Garis-garis besar haluan negara yang ditetapkan MPR inilah yang harus dijalankan oleh presiden. Presiden merupakan pihak yang diberi mandat oleh MPR.
Dalam hal ini jelas bahwa posisi presiden dalam hubungannya dengan MPR adalah pelaksana keputusan MPR yang tertuang dalam garis-garis besar haluan negara. Presiden tidak boleh mempunyai haluan politik sendiri diluar yang sudah ditetapkan oleh MPR. Presiden berada dalam subordinasi dan dominasi lembaga ini. Dengan jelas Soepomo menyebutkan, (Bahar, 1995).

“…Maka Majelis Permusyawaratan Rakyat menetapkan garis-garis besar haluan negara, sedang presiden dan wakil presiden diangkat oleh Majelis Permusyawaratan Rakyat dan berada dibawah Majelis Permusyawaratan Rakyat. Jadi Presiden ‘untergeornet’ tidak ‘nebegeornet’ dan dibawah Majelis Permusyawaratan Rakyat menjalankan haluan negara yang ditetapkan oleh Majelis Permusyawaratan Rakyat. Presiden tidak boleh mempunyai politik sendiri , tetapi mesti menjalankan haluan negara yang telah ditetapkan, diperintahkan Majelis Permusyawaratan Rakyat. Ia diperintah oleh Majelis Permusyawaratan Rakyat.

Begitu gambarannya”.
Pola hubungan MPR dan presiden ini memunculkan suatu dimensi lain bagi sumber kekuasaan yang diperoleh presiden. Dalam sistem distribusi kekuasaan UUD ’45, presiden tidak saja memperoleh kekuasaan yang bersumber langsung dari UUD ini seperti yang dirumuskan dalam pasal-pasalnya, tetapi mendapatkan kekuasaan yang sifatnya turunan (derivasi) dari kekuasaa milik lembaga lain yang dilimpahkan kepadanya, (Mulyosudarmo, 1997).
Kekuasaan yang sifatnya turunan ini dapat berupa pelimpahan kekuasaan dalam bentuk ‘pemberian kuasa’ (pemberian mandat) atau pelimpahan kekuasaan dan tanggung jawab (delegasi) (Mulyosudarmo, 1997). Hubungan kekuasaan antara MPR dan presiden yang dikonstruksikan UUD ’45 mengakibatkan presiden dapat memperoleh kekuasaan derivasi dari MPR untuk melakukan tugas-tugas perolehan kekuasaan yang sifat nya derivatif ini, muncul mekanisme pertanggung jawaban antara presiden yang memperoleh kekuasaan terhadap MPR yang memberi kekuasaan.

Dengan alur berpikir yang demikian, mudah dipahami mengapa presiden (dan wakil presiden) menjadi penting untuk dipilih langsung oleh rakyat.
Memang sistem pemerintahan presidential Indonesia dalam hubungan ini memiliki keunikan tersendiri jika dibandingkan dengan sistem presidensial pada umumnya dimana presiden dipilih langsung oleh rakyat, tidak dipilih oleh lembaga perwakilan rakyat sebagaimana praktek yang dilakukan dalam sistem parlementer.

Keunikan ini sangat mungkin terjadi akibat pengaruh sistem pemerintahan kolonial Hindia Belanda di mana pola hubungan antara MPR dengan Preside sama dengan pola hubungan antara Ratu Belanda dengan Gubernur Jenderal yang berlaku pada masa penjajahan sebagaimana diatur dalam konstitusi Hindia Belanda Indische Staatsregeling, (Alrasid, 1999).
Problem sistem Sistemik Pemilihan Tidak langsung melalui MPR.

Pemilihan presiden dalam sistem pemerintahan presidential yang tidak dilakukan langsung oleh rakyat pemilih tetapi diserahkan kepada suatu Majelis Permusyawaratan Rakyat mengandung beberapa problem.

Pertama, konsep pemilihan presiden oleh MPR menimbulkan beban pertanggungjawaban atas segala pelaksanaan kekuasaan presiden yang dapat membawa jatuhnya presiden dalam masa jabatannya jika pertanggungjawaban tidak diterima oleh MPR. Ini menunjukan sistem pemerintahan dan secara khusus hubungan Presiden dengan lembaga perwakilan rakyat baik DPR maupun MPR merupakan hubungan yang in between antara sistem parlemen disatu sisi dengan sistem presidensial disisi lain. Parlemendimana eksekutif dapat jatuh dari jabatannya kapan saja karena hilangnya dukungan parlemen.
Pola hubungan seperti ini harus segera diakhiri. Jika hendak meletakkan dominasi kekuasan negara atas prinsip kedaulatan rakyat ditangan lembaga perwakilan rakyat, maka prinsip-prinsip sistem parlementerlah yang harus dipakai.

Tetapi jika hendak mempertahankan sistem presidential maka pola hubungan yang seimbang antara presiden dengan lembaga perwakilan rakyat harus diterapkan. Dan ini berarti pengangkatan presiden oleh MPR harus diubah dengan pemilihan langsung oleh rakyat agar legitimasi kekuasaan presiden tidak lagi berasal dari majelis dengan segala konsekuensinya.
Kedua, problem lain yang menyangkut dasar legitimasi kekuasaan presiden. Pemilihan presiden yang dimiliki kekuasaan besar itu hanya ditentukan oleh 700 orang anggota MPR. Jika suara MPR yang memenangkan calon presiden terpilih sama dengan keinginan rakyat yang tecermin dari raihan kursi partai yang mencalonkan calon presiden dimaksud, dasar jumlah 700 suara anggota MPR tidak begitu menjadi persoalan.

Tetapi jika terjadi sebaliknya kehendak calon presiden dari sebagian besar rakyat tidak sama dengan keinginan sebagian besar anggota MPR maka dasar legitimasi atas ukuran kemauan rakyat menjadi persoalan. Presiden terpilih akan mendapat tingkat akseptansi yang rendah di masyarakat sehingga prinsip kehendak rakyat adalah dasar kekuasaan pemerintah tidak terpenuhi.
Ketiga, pemilihan presiden yang dilakukan di MPR mudah pula untuk di manipulasi. Sejarah membuktikan dalam masa pemerintahan Orde Baru MPR telah direkayasa sedemikian rupa melalui pembuatan undang-undang tentang Susunan dan Kedudukan MPR, undang-undang tentang pemilihan umum, dan undang-undang tentang partai politik. Sehingga presiden yang berkuasa dapat terus menerus dipilih oleh MPR itu.

Pada masa sekarang ketika rekayasa undang-undang hampir tidak mungkin lagi karena undang-undang yang berlaku sudah terhindar dari kepentingan untuk mempertahankan kekuasaan yang tidak demokratis, maka manipulasi berwujud dalam dimensi yang lain. Jual beli suara misalnya, merupakan ancaman serius proses pemilihan presiden sekarang ini di samping teror atau tekanan politik untuk menggolkan satu calon presiden tertentu.
Republika, Edisi 12 Juni 2000






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